Bill Wexler's Profits of DOOM Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Bill Wexler's Profits of DOOM

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To: jim wick who wrote (1735)	7/23/1998 6:05:00 AM
From: Graeme Smith	Read Replies (1) of 4634

Jim, If you look closely I am not even recommending shorting SEEC. It is already trading at book value and so has little down side. I might even consider buying it long as a hedge against my Y2K shorts. It was included in the portfolio for two reasons. One it illustrated that Y2K stocks can, and will trade at book value. Secondly it gave a perspective on how wildly overvalued some of the Y2K stocks are. SEEC is priced at a 12% discount to its estimated Y2K book value. ALYD on the other hand is priced at about 7 times optimistic Y2K book value. All bad news is priced into SEEC, and when reality is priced into ALYD it too will be trading at a 10th of its value. Also, I am not so niave as to think that contracts will stop coming in on Jan 1, 2000. I think most of them will dry up by Jan 1, 1999. Contracts are signed (usually) prior to beginning work on Y2K. Since most large companies are scheduled to be finished by October to December of this year, most big contracts have been negotiated and signed already. All that said, I'm quite glad to be called a pinhead. I get jealous when the likes of Bill and Dr Suess seem to get all the abuse. Graeme

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