Brian: OLD article (March 1998)
Old article; but not posted before as far as I know; and contains lots of interesting stuff (bold).
controlmagazine.com
John
_______
'Users Demand Y2K Lemon Aid
By Joe Feeley, Senior Technical Editor
Nearing the close of an afternoon session updating attendees on Y2K issues
at an automation strategies forum hosted by Dedham, Mass.-based Automation
Research Corp. (ARC), an unsatisfied instrumentation and control user strode to
the microphone. He posed a carefully-sharpened question, and walked away as a
finalist in this year's Put the Experts in Their Place competition.
The questioner said simply, "If the engine chip in my Ford Explorer had a date
function problem, the car manufacturer would recall the car, replace the chip for
free-even through he didn't build the chip-and say he was sorry for the
inconvenience. He wouldn't tell me I have to buy a new car! Why don't [control
vendors] do the same thing, rather than stick us with the problem?"
The panel members, comprised of engineers passing along helpful Y2K
experiences, industry analysts, systems integrators, and far too few vendors,
looked at one another, looked down, looked up, and looked for the exits as they
struggled for a reasonable response.
Bob Newell, Honeywell Control Systems' Y2K program manager, broke an
uncomfortable silence by countering that the question of free didn't equitably
apply. "The control vendor supplies its users a great deal of free support during
the lifecycle of the product or system. We don't charge for "oil changes or
maintenance visits," he offered. No follow-up challenge emerged, but the
response was met with audience murmurs suggesting that the free oil changes
had been well paid for in the up front price of the system.
This and several other
exchanges reflect a
growing discomfort among
users and vendors as the
Y2K problem begins to
dominate 1998 planning.
The session underscored
that companies are not
finding support or answers
as they begin to evaluate
Y2K impact on their
organizations.
A number of knowledgeable speakers, representing vendors, users, and hired
guns, outlined their companies' actions, plans, and advice to an attentive
audience.
Dave Woll, vice president for services, ARC, began the session by offering
some data. He said of the 3.3 billion micro-controllers embedded in the
automation infrastructure, 50 million will have Y2K anomalies. "Many of them
are older ones that no one knows the code for," he said. "Your company may
have bought lots of custom code in the '70s and '80s. Now it's yours and no one
else's."
As a reference point, Woll reviewed the Dept. of Defense Year 2000 project
inventory report. He said of 3,962 applicable systems, 582 were OK, 623 were
being renovated, 628 were retired, and the balance of 1,900 was being assessed.
The numbers suggested that about 25% of all the systems would require some
level of fixing.
"If you're in a position to speak up, make sure company officials recognize the
liability they carry as officers of your company," warned Woll. "Y2K losses will
not be considered an act of God. There are serious legal, risk, and insurance
implications."
Woll concluded by comparing personal activity with Y2K issues. "Last year I
got about 25 e-mails daily about Y2K. This year it's closer to 150 each day, and
there's a little panic creeping in," he said. "If you're just starting now, develop a
contingency plan in parallel because there's some chance you won't finish in
time."
Patrick Meehan, Y2K program manager, DuPont Operations, presented the
large-user perspective. "Let's face it, there's not much upside and a lot of
downside," he offered. He sees that 50% of DuPont's work will be with process
control devices and systems and his current estimate is that, while 100% will be
examined, 10-15% will need remediation.
Introducing a thought line that attendees revisited during the Q&A, Meehan
reminded his audience about ensuring that a company's distribution or material
providers have their acts in order as well. In an integrated supply chain process,
it's possible that one single-point failure can shut down the process. "I can do this
all perfectly," echoed an audience member. "But one of my suppliers could close
me down if they don't do it right, too."
Meehan also suggested the attendees carefully consider what to do with
processes that rarely, if ever, are deliberately shut down. Timing is very
important, particularly if there are short-duration maintenance windows that
facilities have to accommodate.
Several presenters mentioned the need for examining both device and system,
saying just because the device is OK doesn't mean the system is. Distributed
systems with layered, embedded applications can make the search for every
relevant date and time function like looking for needles in haystacks. Meehan
recalled that some of the assessment and trial ordeals reminded the participants
of a "plug and pray" analogy.
Newell provided some sobering examples during his Honeywell presentation.
He spoke of a recent CAP Gemini Poll that showed five of every six Fortune
500s haven't begun the fix phase. "One in four has started the preliminary phase
but only one in six has a final plan," he reported.
He reported that a U.K. finance house ran its clocks forward and found its
accounts printed out in pre-decimalization (1971) monetary units. An embedded
conversion solution wasn't seen. As a final word of advice in the inventory phase,
Newell said, "Don't forget the spare parts room testing. Think how great you'll
feel fixing everything that's operating only to find your first new-millennium part
replacement brings down your system."
Richard Ryan, president, Rockwell Software, stood in for his Rockwell
hardware cousins and reported that a number of semiconductor plants-operating
with a lot of home-grown devices-found two in every three devices had a
compliance problem. He added that a Lucent factory reported four of every five
failed, and some Rockwell plants had 100% compliance failure in the devices
tested.
Ken Owen, TAVA Technologies, Englewood, Colo., invoked the conference's
only Titanic reference by suggesting that companies have tended to look only at
the tip of the iceberg. "The damage to the systems that help you count your
money are getting a lot of attention, but the 90% underwater-the controls -is the
structure that makes the money, and it's not getting enough attention."
His company's research concluded that problems will vary. "It will range from
simply having erratic production problems, to having lines that don't run because
the manufacturing systems have stopped, to having serious safety and quality
problems because the manufacturing systems make bad decisions," he asserted.
Sounding a familiar alarm, he concluded by saying, "Do the math. If you
started January 1, 1998, you spent one month negotiating what you think you
need and you'll need two months to test a pilot program. After that, you'll need
five months to conduct a full inventory and assessment of what you have and
another five months planning the steps to convert what needs to be converted.
Our work so far indicates you'll need ten or more months to remediate, and
then-sorry-time's up."
A few less ominous thoughts were presented. Newell believes, "One positive
from all this is your inventory. It can be excellent foundational data for building
an updated, fully-validated, strategic automation plan." He believes users
probably wouldn't have had the opportunity to be this thorough otherwise.
Owen reminded the attendees that there will be varying degrees of pain. "Not
everything you heard applies to your situation, but you sure better find out what
does."
Apart from ARC's conference, control engineers who browse any automation
list server are finding and posting new messages every day providing details
about somebody's PLC logic problem or notes from newcomers finally realizing
it's time to get started. Boston-based Gartner group analyst Dan Miklovic
predicts, "Towards the end of 1998, those who haven't yet worried about Y2K
will find themselves forced to. If they don't, Y2K becomes the best thing that
happened to lawyers since divorce." He warns the industry, "Expect to be hit
with a flood of letters demanding guarantees of Y2K certification or risk stiff
penalties." The prevailing sentiment: The year 2000-a great time to be a...lawyer.
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