Much Smoke, Little Fire
Strategy Page
July 19, 2006: So far, the fighting with Hizbollah has left about 300 people dead. Some ten percent of those are Israeli, as a result of nearly a thousand Hizbollah rockets fired into Israel. Nearly all of these rockets are unguided, and most Israelis along the Lebanese border, are spending most of their time in bomb shelters. Most of the Hizbollah rockets are short range ones (20 kilometers or less), and are not having much impact. Some of the rockets were Syrian. Israel has teams of forensic specialists go over the site where each rocket lands, collecting fragments of the rocket and identifying its type.
Longer range (over 40 kilometers) rockets are needed to reach Israel's third largest (and northernmost) city of Haifa. But the inaccuracy of these rockets has meant that each one causes only one or two casualties. Israel has moved three Patriot anti-missile missile batteries to Haifa.
Israel is believed to have destroyed, on the ground, three or four rockets for every one that is fired. Israel has a large force of UAVs and long experience using them. There are a lot of Israeli self-propelled artillery up near the Lebanese border, no doubt working in close cooperation with UAVs and helicopters (which tend to stay on the Israeli side of the border to avoid ground fire) to zap Hizbollah rockets as they are being moved or set-up for firing. A lot of this takes place as night, when Hizbollah gets reminded how well the Israeli night-vision cameras work.
Hizbollah is riding high now, as the independent Arab media praise the attack on Israel. But state controlled media throughout the Arab world is less supportive, and sees Hizbollah as an anti-Arab agent for the Shia Iranians. Iran has, for thousands of years, been seen as the enemy of the Arabs, and many Arabs see the current Hizbollah antics as another ploy to stick it to the Arabs. Arab politicians realize that the chances of Hizbollah "winning" its war are practically nil, and that a Hizbollah defeat will further erode the reputation of Arabs as fighters and thinkers.
Israeli ground troops moved into Lebanon. Israel has said it does not intend to conduct large scale ground operations in Lebanon. But small groups of troops are apparently going in to seize or destroy stocks of Hizbollah weapons, or capture Hizbollah operatives.
Israel is not saying what its strategy is, or exactly how its tactics are working. But the Israelis do have a plan, and they are aggressively carrying it out. While Hizbollah has fired nearly a thousand rockets into Israel, causing about 360 casualties. This has made the Israelis angry, not despondent. Opinion polls in Israel show most of the population favoring continuing the fight with Hizbollah.
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