Race for president back in balance
Democrat uses TV debates and anger at Iraq to eat into Bush's lead in polls
Paul Harris in St Louis
Sunday October 10, 2004
The Observer
Democratic challenger John Kerry has cemented his recent surge in the opinion polls, with the latest showing him moving into a slight lead over George W Bush.
Kerry led the president by 46 to 45 per cent in a tracking poll released yesterday by respected firm Zogby International. Several other recent surveys showed him closing in on Bush, although most still had the incumbent with a slight advantage.
Kerry has fought his way back into the race after strong performances in the first two national live televised debates.
The second, on Friday in St Louis, Missouri, was a closer affair than the first, with both candidates attacking each other over Iraq and a host of domestic issues.
Polls afterwards showed a narrow Kerry win, with ABC having him 44 per cent to 41 per cent ahead and CNN 47 per cent to 45 per cent.
However, the gap was so small many pundits declared the debate a draw - a result likely to please the Republicans more than the Democrats.
Bush performed poorly in the first debate and senior aides admitted privately that they could not afford to lose again. In particular Bush could not repeat the facial grimaces he had displayed first time around. Early on in the St Louis debate Bush tried to make light of his previous performance. 'That answer almost made me scowl,' he quipped after one Kerry statement.
After a shaky start, where he appeared visibly angry, Bush improved as the debate wore on. He took advantage of the 'town hall' format to walk around the converted university gymnasium and employ his 'folksy' campaign demeanour.
But Kerry also did well. He was deeply critical of Bush's policy on Iraq and accused him of having dragged America into a disastrous war.
After Bush denied that he would reinstitute the military draft for Iraq, Kerry accused him of using the army reserves and National Guard mainstream units. 'You've got a back-door draft right now,' Kerry snapped.
The pair will meet for the third and final time later this week in Arizona for a debate about domestic issues. Kerry is likely to view the confrontation as a last opportunity to deliver a knockout blow to Bush.
The debates have revived his campaign, which had appeared to be meandering towards an increasingly likely defeat. Kerry's 'likeability' numbers in several polls have also rocketed, showing that his campaign is finally chipping away at the image of a wooden orator with an aloof air.
Most importantly of all, surveys in the so-called battleground states have shown that Kerry has narrowed the gap on Bush. That even goes for Missouri, which played host to Friday night's debate. The state is seen as a bellwether which nearly always votes with the winning candidate.
Bush had been ahead so strongly in Missouri that Kerry's campaign team had taken its adverts off the air waves, effectively conceding the state. Now, with the latest internal Democrat polls showing Kerry just one point behind Bush, the adverts are due to return to TV screens for the first time since July.
But with just over three weeks to go until election day, most experts and campaign staffers admit it is too close to call and likely to remain that so. 'We think this race has settled into about a two-point advantage for us right now,' said Bush's chief strategist Matthew Dowd.
Some experts believe it is even closer than that. That means any of a host of factors, ranging from the third candidacy of Ralph Nader to attacks in Iraq, could prove decisive in the final few days.
David Lanoue, a political scientist at the University of Alabama, said: 'Any small changes can and do matter this year. It is simply too close to call.'
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