Dlphc, the answer is really in how the Market psychology decides to interpret the info, not in the info itself. When the more powerful forces (and I am not talking the big guy upstairs...lol) want the Market to go up, the media will be lead to believe (read that to mean that CNBC and the financial rags are pawns) that everyone is looking ahead 6 months and everything will be rosy then. Even the earnings comparisons will be easy to beat.
However, when these same forces want the Market to go down they will do their best to get everyone to look at the here and now, and how awful the performance is of many companies. That will be pretty easy to do in the semi sector, as many of those firms (LSCC is the latest) are offering bleak outlooks. Another negative that will be emphasized more in the next few weeks and maybe months is price gouging which should hurt margins and bottom line growth.
So, to answer your question, I think we will get a mixture of positive and negative tones throughout the summer and maybe into the Fall with a slight upward bias and a rise to NASDAQ 3000 by somewhere between September and April of next year. That prediction, if it comes true, is not as worthless as it sounds, since that is almost a 45% rise from here. Some may even decide to buy some quality long term names here. I am hoping for a retest of NASDAQ 2000 at least in a few days, so I can feel more confident about buying for even the intermediate term. Right now, I still hate holding for more than 2-3 days. |
