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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: Lucretius who started this subject6/21/2002 7:29:46 PM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™   of 436258
 
lewis on the dollareo

Now, this whole idea of a “steady” decline in the dollar being a good thing is a complete joke. It’s just as ludicrous an idea as when I heard somebody suggest a couple years ago that maybe the NASDAQ would just flop along sideways up around 4000 or gently drift lower while earnings caught up with stock prices. That’s not how markets work. Once the majority knows that the direction is down, there will be a panic for the door (as we are beginning to see now in the dollar). Self-interest causes accelerated moves to the downside, just like it did to the upside during the bull market. That said, the dollar is likely nearing some sort of corrective rally I think, although it certainly wouldn’t surprise me to see a further panic on Monday. Gold’s and its shares’ continued underperformance are hinting that much of the dollar’s fall has been discounted and that we’re likely nearing the end of the move in terms of time but not necessarily price. Unfortunately, I don’t think a rally in the dollar will necessarily translate into an immediate bottom for stocks and may in fact be the trigger for finally seeing a bit of panic in the market. But we’ll deal with that when and if we see it. Treasuries rallied but failed to take out yesterday’s highs. The yield on the 10yr fell to 4.75%.
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