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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room

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To: Bocor who wrote (174514)	12/4/2012 1:36:17 PM
From: Jim P.	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) of 206178

I still like APL. I bought a little on Monday before the news. Hold a gob of 2014 calls strike 30, 40 and 45. NGL takeaway capacity will increase by the end of 1st half 2013 so plants can not be on limits. Lots of expansion going on driven by Pioneer in the Permian, Sandridge in the Mississippi play and soon the SCOOP play in the Woodford shale. Likely Q distribution rate $0.75 plus per Q by 4th Q 2014. Yield of 7 percent or lower would work out to an expected price of $42 plus in about 12 months. Real winner is ATLS as the higher share count on APL does not hurt the parent MLP as long as distribution does not increase. Parent multiplier before dilution was 110 % increase in distribution compared to APL above 60 cents per Q (there is about a 5 cent give back in there around 70 cents). New multiplier I have not calculated but likely 120%. This is stacked onto a similar multiplier for the other baby MLP ARP. I own some ATLS also and a meaningful position of 2014 calls. I do not like the amount of debt most MLP's use account we are still in a debt recession. I have a larger position in PSE. A lot of unrecognized value in the PUD's. Jim

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