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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?
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To: Jim McCormack who wrote (17447)9/21/1997 1:59:00 PM
From: Don Earl   of 42771
 
Hi Jim,

Some more thoughts on the numbers. First of all, that was a good job putting the numbers together. It takes a lot of time to go through that many SEC filings. Setting it up in a table like you did paints a pretty good picture of by how much and when the channel was stuffed.

It appears to me that education revenues, although declining slightly, are pretty much flat at around 30-32 million.

Network Services are flat and have been for years at 70 million. How this area keeps getting stuffed is hard to figure. It may be that newer products are released and older versions have to be returned.

Unix revenue is expected to decline and eventually disappear. The totals might be easier to analyze without it. 6 million probably isn't that far off.

Net Ware sales have been declining. Nobody doubts that. Not getting Moab out the door in a timely fashion has probably hurt this area more than anything Microsoft has done. I'm still going on the assumption that Q2 was 30 million less than it should have been because the company stopped shipping to the channel before Q3. I don't think it would be far fetched to guess that around 20 million of that should have been added to Net Ware sales to give an actual figure of 189 million for Q2 and I don't think this quarter will be that much different.

So.....30+70+6+189=295+new products=? I still think .07 EPS should be a no brainer. Although .07 isn't all that special we all know how much Wall Street just loves surprizes. It'll be a couple months yet before we know for sure. My guess is the stock price will be pretty flat for awhile but with a little patience it should be easy money come November.

Regards,

Don
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