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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host
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To: Math Junkie who wrote (17483)2/24/2003 1:09:24 PM
From: Tim Bagwell   of 42834
 
I'm not convinced that the data on the model's performance since inception is sufficient to provide a statistically valid record for the purpose of proving its validity.

Especially in a bear market. There ARE no statistics to support the model in a bear market. Brinker reportedly hasn't even attempted to back test the model to other bear market periods. That simple fact turns Brinker's model into a tool for speculation.

But so far, Brinker's laze faire attitude is paying off insofar as it now looks like a lower entry point may lie ahead. But it also makes one wonder if he will miss the bottom because he is out of touch with the market. At some point in here, a monkey with a buy button will perform as well as the model. With the market risk becoming lower with each downtick of the DJIA, the higher risk tilts to being out of the market.

So who needs a model anyway?
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