John Pitera's Market Laboratory Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory

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To: robert b furman who wrote (17514)	1/4/2016 4:23:46 PM
From: John Pitera	4 Recommendations Recommended By benwood Hawkmoon mary-ally-smith roguedolphin Read Replies (1) of 33421

Quite a start to the year. Obviously China's Shanghai market selling off 7.7% and having to implement a trading halt with circuit breakers was disruptive as was flair up with Saudi Arabia and Iran with the 2 countries breaking relations. The Chinese devalued the currency last summer and we saw global weakness in equities. The Global currency markets are showing us this will be a disruptive volatile year with continuing global currency depreciation efforts by the countries central banks. The Chinese Yuan has been weakening against the USD for months and made a 6 and a half year new low vs. the USD. The Riksbank jumped the gun already stating that they could intervene at any time and with out any notice .... in 2015 ..... we had to wait until Jan 15th for the Swiss national bank to leg the peg go against the Euro and create December 30, 2015 — 6:49 AM ESTUpdated on December 30, 2015 — 9:34 AM EST Sweden’s krona fell from a nine-month high versus the euro after Riksbank Governor Stefan Ingves said officials are ready to intervene in the foreign-exchange markets to limit the currency’s appreciation. "If the exchange rate strengthens earlier and more rapidly than forecast, it will be more difficult to push up inflation towards the target," Ingves said in a statement. "The Riksbank is therefore highly prepared to intervene on the exchange market whenever we deem it necessary The market breath was only down 5 to 1 or possibly 6 to 1... and that is not that extreme. We have had 8 to 1 days in the past couple of months. The Geopolitical storm in the mid east in other times would have popped up crude 5 or 8 $ a barrel and due to the fact that we still have a glut we see little more than a dollar rally in the morning and then see crude end up down for the day. Jeremy Siegel points out that we had a 7% drop in SPX 2015 earnings ..the largest that has ever occurred in a year where the US was not in a recession. as a contrarian one should take it as a Key tell that Kelly Evans of cnbc commented that if you bought the low point of the SPX and the broad averages today you would make money on the year. also quite amazing that every one of the firms that were polled had the SPX closing 2016 between 2100 and 2300.... there is evidently not a single significant sell side firm that is predicting a flat or negative year. a bottom in Crude is looking more tenuous...... the past 10 days.. John

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