Eric,
I've been looking at your estimate for Q4/98, and I think you're being very conservative. I took the Excel file you provided from Q3 and updated it for Q4 so that I could play with the numbers. This is what I came up with:
Revenue = $1.626B
Margin = 25.7%
Profit = $133M
EPS (diluted) = $0.88
My revenue number is based on a 16% rise over Q3. From your quarter to quarter chart, it looks like this was a normal revenue increase for Apple before the decline started. I think this is easily attainable given the iMac and the lateness of the PowerBook refresh last quarter, together with the usual quarterly increase.
My margin number is the same as Q3. I think it may turn out even higher. My sense is that Apple will lower the price of the iMac significantly before Christmas, perhaps as low as $999, and that they will still be making a healthy margin even then. If I'm right about that, the actual margin this quarter could be as high as 30%, or even higher.
So my numbers are fairly conservative too, I think.
By the way, I would like to add my voice to the chorus of people on the thread who are urging you to continue providing numbers for quarterly estimates. I find them very helpful. You mention "going out on a limb." The only real danger I could see is legal liability. If you wanted to cover that, you could add a disclaimer in your server-side footer to the effect that your numbers are not to be construed as advice, etc. (Same goes for this post, of course!) Most investment sites have a disclaimer of this sort somewhere.
rhet0ric |
