Calm down. Bears won nothing today. My portfolio held the exact same value as yesterday. Just closing some positions and taking some profits before the weekend. After-hours trading the QQQ was up and so were EMC and CSCO I noticed.
Yes some stocks are now close to being fully valued but only the first tier of poppers. And even though EMC won't go higher it won't go back down much either. Ditto IBM, GE, AAPL, NOK. These are holds. And if they did go down people would buy right away. Also at day's end two of my three main tech dogs popped 20% with lots more to go. So there's plenty more popping to be done down in that popcorn pan. And big telcos haven't even begun to go up yet.
This weekend will have bulls everywhere eager to buy in researching the next picks. By Monday there will be more popping all over the place, but a different new bunch than last week. Maybe the jumps will diminish over the next two weeks but expect them to continue and keep greed and hope alive and well as opposed to fear. I have no fear whatsoever of shorts now and I don't think I'm alone.
The only chance I think shorts have here are some very particular sub-sectors which may get ahead of themselves, and I don't even play those guys. CIEN is a typical high-flier I look at. It held even today at 67. That seems to be fair value in the eyss of the market unless some new bad news comes out. So 60's should hold. Maybe even get up to 80. So wait until then to short it. Why jump the gun?
My point is that in your exuberance to short against a flood of new bullishness you're in denial. Gains on the short side will be minimal and there are still plenty of bargains on the long side. I suggest you buy 2nd-3rd tier dogs like LOR, SCNT, NOVL which are still selling at giveaway prices. SCNT has more cash than market cap. NOVL has 67% cash/hard assets, LOR's satellites are worth five times this current price. UIS is another I like. Could get you 50% fairly quickly on any deal announcement. WCOM, SBC and FON are at bottoms now. WCOM and FON may be bought out.
VZ is a stellr deal at 12 PE. The #1 telco.
I don't mean to lecture and know I am repeating myself but I warned you to wait three weeks. There is so much more buying to be done here and the economy is going to improve sharply second half. Also the real problem companies like NT haven't really gone up much. Still at 17 only 25% from its bottom. And I'd buy away if it dips to 15.
Wait until May 15th or you're taking enormous risks here going against the tide and all by your lonesome. Every short made is less cash for you to use once the market finally does top out. In the meantime the gains are mainly on the long side. The evidence is obvious. Profit-taking was pretty tame today and a lot of people bought the dips. That will continue. Take the weekend off to re-thikn your strategy, all of you shorts. Or you're just handing us longs your money. |
