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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated

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From: LindyBill	8/18/2006 8:24:17 AM
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Start getting used to the phony polls that the MSM runs in an attempt to help the Dems between now and November. Betsy discusses one of the tricks they use. Does the right track/wrong track question predict elections? Pollsters and pundits have been using the numbers in the right track/wrong track question to predict that the Democrats are going to win big in the fall election. Jay Cost says - not so fast. His statistical analysis of this question as relates to the overall vote for the party of the president does not find that it has much predictive value. Just as earlier he found out that the generic ballot question does little to predict an election outcome, the right track/wrong track question is no guide to how people actually vote. "Why is right track/wrong track such a poor anticipator of changes in the balance of power? The reason is simple: this is not a parliamentary system. Our votes for Congress are not proxies for our evaluations of the state of the nation. They are, rather, proxies for our evaluations of the candidates that the parties present to us. Voters, quite obviously, do not have the state of the nation in mind when they cast their ballot for Congress - at least not in any way that implies that one party is punished and one party is rewarded." Let's face it. We'd all like some easy polling question that would tell us how the elections are going to come out. I'm one of those people who read the last chapter of a book first because I can't stand the suspense. We don't have that luxury with elections, much as we'd like to think so. Having one generic question to predicate our whole analysis on is not going to work. Individual polling in each race over a period of time with a good filter for determining likely voters would help. But that is expensive and it is getting harder to determine who is actually going to turn out to vote. We might just have to wait for election night results to figure out what will happen this fall. betsyspage.blogspot.com

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