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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
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To: mishedlo who wrote (17691)12/5/2004 3:40:39 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu  Read Replies (2) of 116555
 
My take is that Europe is in quite big trouble now – slowing economy and dwindling exports. The fast rise of the EURO put many small and medium size businesses in a quandary IMHO and it is politically dangerous for the ruling parties. Keep in mind that less or little work is recession but out of work is depression

The US will raise moderately interest rates with a wait and see attitude – my take is that 25 bp is a given this month.

As to FX - My bet is intervention to support the USD sooner or later as the rise was way to fast IMHO – the EUR is at 1995 levels now and the Yen in similar position. (for starters the Yen was around 250 in 1985) If the USD stabilizes around those levels EU can cope but above 1.40 it is real danger zone in the next few months (from early next week I will close all the short calls on the USD as they are close to the 10 pips anyway).
(BWDIK)

As to real estate world wide it will fall from it’s own weight – after several years of growing volume with rising prices - lower volume steady prices and growing stocks with the sellers - what it tells you if it would be a stock? – more advances or a fall in prices?

Most important in the US the average wages are not coping with inflation and as such the payment of mortgages are slowly getting to be a bigger burden, which will eat into available income for spending which will bring a slowdown and a drift downwards

OT – does any one on this tread have experience with malfunctioning thyroid gland of an old person?
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