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Pastimes : SARS - what next?

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To: energyplay who wrote (163)4/20/2003 2:32:27 AM
From: Maurice Winn  Read Replies (2) of 1070
 
<A cluster of SARS patients in Hong Kong with unusual symptoms has prompted concern that the virus causing the disease is mutating. Doctors fear the changes are making the disease more severe.

Scientists in Hong Kong are now urgently sequencing key genes from recently isolated coronaviruses to reveal any changes. New Scientist has learned that the changes in symptoms mirror those already seen when animal coronaviruses have mutated.

Microbiologist Yuen Kwok-yung, at the University of Hong Kong, said on Wednesday that the 300 patients from a SARS hot spot, the Amoy Gardens apartment complex, were more seriously ill than patients who acquired the infection elsewhere.
>

The Amoy Gardens patients obviously got a real dose of it for some reason. Therefore the bug got a big grip on them before their immune systems had the slightest idea they were under attack. So of course the profusion of bugs and their severity of symptoms were worse than normal.

Maybe it was in their air-conditioning, or water, or soup in their restaurant, or salad [a few coughs and sneezes from a food handler would, I suppose, do the trick].

Of course the bug is mutating. That's what all living things do. But the rate of mutation must be slow still, with only 3000 people infected. Wait until a million are infected and then the mutation rate will be zinging along.

On the other hand, maybe the Amoy variety is a virulent variety which gets a grip really easily. A mutation can happen on day one with one virus [it's just extremely unlikely].

My theories for the day.

Mq
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