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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 318.06

+1.4%

Jan 5 4:00 PM EST

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To: Alastair McIntosh who wrote (17711)	8/6/2004 5:35:04 PM
From: BelowTheCrowd	Read Replies (1) of 95677

All the stimulus to the consumer has been exhausted. Fiscal, monetary, etc. Stimulus to business is seemingly ineffective. Businesses are seeing no great money to spend the money they're earning, no matter how "free" it has become. A letter published on a subscription only site poses an interesting view. In essence, he suggests that the consumer recession that was delayed by easy credit and the housing boom is now coming due, and like the "business recession" that preceded it, we can expect it to last 12-18 months. He goes on to suggest that the economy won't be ready for a sustainable rebound until the consumer and corporate sectors are closer in sync again. (The last recession is the first one in modern history that did not have a consumer component.) Finally, he suggests that the markets will react rather unfavorably when they figure out what's up. I personally think markets are already discounting some of this scenario. And he does point to stagflation as a likely outcome. Not my own analysis, but I did find it interesting.

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