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Strategies & Market Trends : Sharck Soup

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To: DebtBomb who wrote (17731)	4/21/2001 1:59:25 PM
From: American Spirit	Read Replies (3) of 37746

Why look backward when techs were 60-99.5% higher? The tide has turned. Until you recognize that your evaluations will be skewed. The Fed is on the side of a recovery and MSFT, IBM and INTC just beat. Sure there are some disappointments but that's last Q when business just stopped suddenly. A one-time phenomenon. Expect it to resume, and suddenly, though none of these stocks except IBM maybe will break old highs anytime soon. Some will only go from 99.8% down to 95% down. But that's a 400% profit. But look for cash value in your picks. NOVL for instance is selling at 4.5 and has 2 bucks cash and 1.5 bucks real estate and stocks. LOR sells at 1.5 and has 15 bucks in asatellite assets. SCNT has 100 mill cash and a mc of less than that. LU just made a billion on Agere's pop and its optics business is suddenly worth maybe twice as much as at first feared. That's a 5 billion dollar pop right there which equals their entire debt. How can you argue with cash and hard assets? Then when growth resumes, factor that in too. You have to begin to look at the positives not the old fear and loathing pessimism. The tide has turned and the Fed has finally given the market what it needed. The market tanked last month when the Fed didn't move .75. Now they just added that .25 plus an extra .25 and another .50 likely coming in three weeks. Why fight that kind of power? The fact is, you can't. You can only scalp tops as a short here and that's very very stressful. Requires pin-point timing before buying resumes. I personally am not a day-trader so I can't micro-manage every tick and close positions every day. I take short-medium term value positions. In this upward market that should make me money. And has been lately. And I can sleep nights. Everything's popping and you're thinking short. I'd wait for this rally to top out in 3-4 weeks before thinking short. Maybe take a vacation and get the market off your mind. Longs should have taken a 3 months vacation from December through March. Would have saved them a lot of money.

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