Things for bulls to think about! Is the Bear alive?!
Posted by: Monica
Posted on: 21st Apr 2001 19:53:00
Message:
What lies ahead ...........more
you have to admire... - Dr Robert
Jim says ::We realize we have an unpopular view of the markets and what will happen going forward. We here don't fight the FED and the Fed has opened the flood gates on liquidity. So what. those kinds of things are some of the contributing factors that has led to the credit bubble and the market bubble. You can't fix a credit bubble by lowering interest rates and opening liquidity. A credit bubble is not fixed by issuing more credit, it is fixed by paying off debt. While lowering rates may help ease the pain of those existing notes that are directly tied to the Prime rate(as most business' are) they still need to be paid off(or at least down) before the banks will give you additional money.( we speak from recent experience on this) .Yes the refinancing of homes by the consumer will help them have a smaller payment, but a smaller payment doesn't mean anything if you don't have a job next year. If there is so much liquidity in the markets and other areas, how come no one is buying gold and precious metals in the face of the most rapid slowdown(possibly) ever? Because no one has any free cash to buy anything with, so it doesn't matter what the FED does. the only answer to this is to get debt paid off, and that requires time. We feel the beginninig of the next bull market won't start with a 40 % rally in stocks in 2 weeks as this one has. The bottom of this bear will come when no one wants to even think about stocks, and they don't care if this is the bottom, they just want out at any cost. Sites like this one that MAH has created while jumping from 25 k hits/day in January to 100k hits/day currently will lose lots of following, because no one will care. This site may go back down to 25k hits/day at that time. We have not broken the will of the people to buy stocks yet in our opinion, so there is more downside to come. Besides, we have yet to see any signs of Joe B capitulating yet. Also didn't they strut out Abby Joe on fri? she has been the kiss of death to some of the most recent rallies. Pammylee says:: They indeed paraded Abby out again, but this time she reduced her S&P forecast. She is usually a great contrarian indicator. So, in this case, we should go higher according to the Abby Indicator. We are in need of a short term pullback though.The size of the pullback should tell us where we are headed.
wolf says : We are currently right at the often tested down-trendline. Most of the widely used indicators are at levels associated with the trendline (see hkp's earlier post with the NDX charts) and other recent market highs. See July, August, October, December, and January peaks in the daily NDX and scroll through the indicators available with the charting features of a white-bread charting site.
Jim, your view is unpopular with nervous traders that too often chase the market. The (unbroken) trend is your friend and it shows the NDX could very likely lose 60% of it's value in the next 3-4 weeks.
I expect to buy June puts next week looking for 550-800 points in May. Who knows, I may get 900-1000 on one of them.
Lockerbee says : By virtue of 2143-2130 survival , closing at 2163, near 2169 and printing 2201 intra-day, on the rise in last few minutes of trading Monday AM points to a higher open. resistance at 2169 ,2184 , 2211 . From any of these levels retracement is overdue to commence. Retacement targets will be 2074 , 2022 , 1975 , 1903, 1868. Amount of retracement in days ahead will decide extent of rally to 2320 , 2425 or 2650 , before Nasdaq can start its doomsday journey. Average of my 5 shorts is 2139 and in probable case of higher Monday AM , I will add to my shorts. On FTSE 100 my short is at 5900. Wednesday I will decide the extent of profits and next strategy. Fed's rate cut reasons , rumours are already surfacing , like Argentine woes , Goldman Sachs fedge fund in trouble , Cisco connection. More will come out in early May , when all bad economic news which has been swept under the carpet will resurface. One effect of ECB not cutting rates is diverting maney away from dollar & Yen is to to strengthen Gold. In 1929 also there was a relief rally after first sell off . After relief rally was the real plunge. So what happen after 18th May is too scary to imagine. So at the peak of next leg of the rally , I short hard for intermediate term. Jim is no fool that he is accumulating shorts early to average shorts at 2200 eventually for 907.
Trustee says: Yes it was a bullish sign that on Friday rally was not sold off . But On Dow 10740 was not attempted intra-day which is bearish. Nasdaq remains bullish by virtue of closing above 2130. Resistance for Monday is pegged at 2211 , 1258 , 10684 , and a retracement commences into Wednesday. The amount of retracement by Wednesday Mid-day will decide extent of next leg of rally in which 2310 , 1305 , 10589 must be taken out to head for peak of rally on 3rd May after which the fall begins which will last for 10 days and rise in anticipation of another Fed rate cut on 15th May, to sell off yet again from 18th May or earlier. |
