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Strategies & Market Trends : Sharck Soup

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To: Paul A who wrote (17751)	4/21/2001 9:06:02 PM
From: American Spirit	Read Replies (1) of 37746

Where do you see the great deals in tech? Those are the only deals I'm interested in. Great value, the next wave and likely new momo plays. And yes some semis have run nicely and could use a pull-back, though "doomed" is way too strong a word. The pullback won't be more than say INTC to 27-29 then maybe right back to 31. The turnaround in semis/computers can happen quickly and as you can see Dell, IBM, MSFT and Apple have not been having much of a problem. CPQ reports this week. INTC also surprised lowered expectations as did AMD (I think). Of course all expectations are greatly lowered now. You shorts never report the good news or the limited downside. That's my main beef with shorts. Just "the sky is falling" when it isn't unless you scare people into believing it. I might be interested in buying some of the first tier tech names if/when they fall back, but in the meantime the 2nd and 3rd wave should do well, then telcos. Go with the value. The only Naz stock I'm interested in now is WCOM which is at its 19 base and hasn't budged yet. Even some bears I know are buying WCOM. It's overdue and pregnant. Just needs an excuse. Remember the truth going forward is somewhere between the bull and bear scenario. Some stocks will go up, some will come down. Some will do both. Some will do both many times. Favorites may sit still. Dogs may triple. White Knights may rescue. Everything that goes around comes around and every dog has its day. So it's a stock-pickers market. I've never said everything will go up from here. Some of them have already hit my top targets and more. But I don't own those stocks anymore so what do I care? And I don't believe we're going to re-test old lows again. Maybe halfway down at the most and not until after the next rate cut except in a few cases. (like if TERN goes up 150% if might come back 50%, or CIEN could bounce off 70 and go back to 55, something like that) So I suppose there are some short opportunities developing faster than I thought in some stocks but the overall direction is still recovery mode. So find the stocks that haven't recovered and buy them if you like them. Or short anything way out-of-control. Just remember the momo though. It can kill ya short-term. And remember you may think NT is worthless but it will attract a lot of buyers at 15. More buyers than sellers. Why? Because they know eventually it will be back at 25-30 and who wants to miss that run even if three are some speed bumps along the way? The money has to go somewhere and mot of it doesn't day-trade.

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