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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room

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From: 22jt4/22/2013 11:48:22 PM
1 Recommendation  Read Replies (1) of 206178
 
CG on ROSE - ACQUISITION CAPITALIZATION COMPLETE ; NOW IT'S EXECUTION




Investment thesis


We are lowering our target price $12 to $57 per share due to slightly

lower NGL benchmark pricing (~36% of WTI), a slightly higher gas/NGL

production composition and the issuance of 8.05 million shares of

common equity (includes overallotment).

Notably, our ’13 production exit rate of 58 Mboepd is at the midpoint of

guidance (56-60 Mboepd) with a liquids composition (~63%) in line with

the company’s outlook. Rosetta should generate ~40% growth in ’13.

Equity component to finance Permian deal retains firm’s robust capitalization

Pro forma the Permian Basin property acquisition and issuance of 8.05

million shares of common equity, the company’s year-end ’13E net debtto-

EBITDA increases from ~0.7x to ~1.6x. The company’s pro forma

leverage ratio is modestly below the industry median, and should

stabilize thereafter assuming ~$1.1 billion per annum capital plan.

Lower vertical Wolfbone well costs suggest capital productivity of vertical

development is comparable to promising horizontal Wolfcamp A test


In ’13, the company plans to drill 40+ vertical Wolfbone wells and

several horizontal Wolfcamp wells. Vertical Wolfbone wells recover

200+ Mboe (~80% oil) for a cost of ~$3.5 million. The company’s initial

Wolfcamp A test (~6,800 lateral, 18 frac stages) commenced at 1,100+

Boepd (75%-80% oil), suggesting a recovery of 600+ Mboe for a cost of

~$10 million. The initial performance of this Wolfcamp A tests suggests

the capital productivity of horizontal development in Reeves County

could be comparable to vertical development. Rosetta is completing a

Wolfcamp A test with a 7,000’+ lateral.

More.....19 pages

research.canaccordgenuity.com
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