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Strategies & Market Trends : Continuing the IFMX discussion and more...
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To: Melissa McAuliffe who wrote (176)9/11/1997 3:18:00 PM
From: Robert Graham   of 206
 
The Dow had a healthy bounce from its support at 7580. The NASDAQ rallied with it. Now the Dow is encountereing resistance at 7660. If it can move back above 7695 and close there today, then this will significantly increase the likelihood for a termination of this downward spill. There may just be a last minute buyin which has recently become a pattern with program trading. I suspect the S&P Premium needs to be above what is considered "fair value" right at the end of the trading day in order for the buy programs to kick in.

The TICK rebounded from very low levels indicating a rally was in progress. However, the TRIN is very high, indicating that the declining stocks are remaining very strong. Given this and the S&P Premium settling in about where it was first thing this morning, it loooks like this latter day rally may not continue. If this is the case, there may be additional losses tomarrow. Tomorrow then will turn out to be a very critical day for the market. If the market drops convincingly below 7580 without rebounding, then it is very possible we will see "Part II" of this market correction. However, I would be surprised if this were to happen.

Considering the investor's apparent renewed fears over inflation, tomarrow's PPI report has been a negative factor in todays market action and may keep a further rally from happening. Hopefully, the PPI report will bring good news to the market tomarrow. Both the retail report and PPI report are coming out before the open of the market. So we will know the reaction of the market to these reports in about the first hour of trading.

Bob Graham
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