Now you're catching on with this stock, Don. There is no rhyme or reason. That's the beauty of this stock. It's the epitome of smoke, mirror, obfuscation and dereliction of shareholder responsibility.
Got to love it!
Short and proud.
AV
P.S. Paul--Here is my strategy: I keep $50,000 in a liquid MM. I use this amount as an insurance when I write uncovered calls when the stock spikes due to takeover rumors (I wait two days after the stock spikes, then sell the covered calls and pocket the premium-I usually sell the 10s, but this has changed over the last 18 months as the stock has declined steadily. (I've loved watching them expire worthless-I keep the money and the losers keep their hope). I usually am short about 35,000 shares, but cover from time to time to take profits or settle a loss.
I ride the wave that the MM artificially create. They have successfully and steadily brought in suckers who hope for a quick profit. And, strangely enough, unusually intelligent people, like Eric S., Joe A., Salah, et al, have stayed with the stock in spite of the obvious company decline. The MMs manipulate the stock just like a dealer manages a table at a casino.
It's addictive. The bright go long, and get stuck. The suckers form an unending stream. To the shorts, it's obvious that the stock already carries a large takeover premium. Based on its merits and intrinsic value, the stock is worth no more than its inflated book value. A takeover of more than $4 billion would require a lengthy explanation to the BOD of the acquiring concern. That's more than four times annual revenue (based on 1998 revenue projections, that would be more than eight times annual revenue).
So I do what the MMs do. I wait for them to make their move (spike the stock) then, sell the uncovered calls, short it as the rumors fade away. The funny part is that there are always takeover rumors (consistently). Why do people believe them. Novell will never be part of a strategic acquisition. The good developers are long gone.
Never had a decent sales force, and the channel strategy is, well, politely, a mess. Everyone's an optimist on this thread, but I am not. Stock is headed due south. Why anyone believes Schmidt can turn it around is beyond me. Must be some kind of messianic fever or hero worship inherent in human nature.
The guy's a loser. Never made it at Sun, but hid in the shadow of his superior. But give the guy credit--he is about ready to collect on his options. I guess it's a surprise to the current BOD that he is still there. I wonder how much of his options he will execute and sell. Now that will be interesting insider information. The leader's a loser and the company is rotten to the core. So that's the secret to success in the NOS market, eh? No wonder Microsoft doesn't even mention Novell as a competitor. Nobody mentions that Novell is a competitor any more. Maybe Artisoft ;-) |
