Patrice:
I feel your pain. I have made all sorts investment mistakes in the past and continue to do so in the present. But you should stop looking at your investment in the rear view mirror and ask yourself what do you really think the prospects for CUBE's future are right now and whether you currently have any other investment prospects that you think would provide you a better return, and thus be a better source of your CUBE funds right now. If you are undecided about CUBE's future and can't think of a better investment, you might as well hang around and see what the 2Q earnings release brings.
IMHO, CUBE's future is very uncertain and I believe that it should be treated as a speculative investment, (i.e. tremendous potential, but no guarantees of it panning out). That stated, I also believe there is also relatively little risk holding the stock for the next several months. You're right to express your concerns. Management has less credibility than Mike Tyson at a vegetarian restaurant. Analysts have totally written off the stock and assumed the worst case scenario. Shorts have piled on to the nth degree. But all of that is reflected in the stock price.
What's the worst thing that can happen with 2Q: that they miss their number. Please, Wall Street is so cynical that everyone already expects that. On the other hand, if Dave Nadalin's estimates are correct, it will be a definite upside surprise and could significantly turn the stock around for a little while. The company has $4 a share in cash right now so it won't have any liquidity problems for the forseeable future. Personally, I think the only thing that could really drive CUBE below its previously established lows would be an entire tech meltdown (i.e. if MSFT or INTC presented very bearish outlooks), but that would trash the entire market not just CUBE.
As usual, I never claim omniscience or infallibility.
Best Regards,
Grant |
