TAKING OUT MUSHARRAF
Global Guerrillas
By John Robb
Pakistan is the key to the strategies of both US/NATO and Taliban/al Qaeda in central Asia. Unfortunately, while the Taliban/al Qaeda strategy rests on a broad base of support, the US/NATO strategy rests on the survival of one man: Pervez Musharraf (our strong man). That reliance is showing signs of coming to an end. Musharraf, responding to both domestic and organizational pressure, is in retreat:
* Autonomy. After the loss of a reported 3,000 troops, Pakistan has ceded the tribal areas of Waziristan (population: 800,000) to pro-Taliban local rule. Weapons will be returned, outposts will be abandoned, and compensation will be paid.
* Safe haven. Pakistan has cut a ceasefire with the Taliban's Mullah Omar. It also prevents US/NATO troops from crossing the border to pursue Taliban forces.
* Good will. 2,500 Taliban and al Qaeda militants have been released from Pakistani jails.
Time
Musharraf's retreat clearly demonstrates that he is in survival mode. Unfortunately for him (and by extension, us), his release of the Taliban and domestic guerrillas on Afghanistan, will not provide him the window of safety he hopes for. Here's why:
* Unlike the opposition mounted by Pakistan against the USSR in Afghanistan, Pakistan is not in control of these forces.
* NATO, as the leader of the counter-insurgency in Afghanistan and unlike the USSR before it, will not mount a serious effort. They will quickly fold.
* The Taliban and al Qaeda is already importing the open source warfare developed in Iraq to central Asia. These tactics and organizational methods will work better in Pakistan, due to its level of development, societal complexity and urbanization, than in Afghanistan.
Finishing the Job
As the war in Afghanistan reaches it conclusion, likely sooner rather than later, Musharraf will quickly become the main target. If the global guerrilla playbook is used, these forces will not use direct attacks on Musharraf's person (which have been mounted on numerous occasions in the past). Instead, they will seek to fragment Pakistan's society and economy, which will force a division in the army (Musharraf's power base). The best method for this was revealed on the 24th of September 2006, when a disruption of power from the Tarbela dam shut down electricity across 75% of Pakistan. All they need to do to achieve Musharraf's removal is to repeat the process again and again and again. |
