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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation

CRSP 56.87

-2.3%

Dec 5 9:30 AM EST

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To: NeuroInvestment who wrote (1815)	10/9/2000 8:58:54 PM
From: hm	of 52153

Just to clog up the thread with another comment on pharmacogenetics.... If Clozaril has a 1% risk of fatal agranulocytosis, how much confidence would be needed from a test to make physicians feel comfortable prescribing the drug when other reasonable alternatives exist? My guess is something on the order of a ten-fold reduction. The issue here: it's going to take a very highly sensitive & specific test to reduce the already low risk of Clozaril down toward 0.1%. This is a high hurdle. And, of course, the test won't promise elimination of the risk - so there will still be risk / benefit decisions requiring lots of education. I would also suspect that the performance of the test will need to be shown in a clinical trial which will add additional time to the development of the test. I think there may be more hope on the efficacy side of pharmacogenetics - it's easier to understand & model the implications. And it's likely to grow out of the drug discovery process rather than having to be added in once a significant safety risk is found. hm

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