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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices

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To: Jim McMannis who wrote (181841)1/29/2004 12:31:16 AM
From: DavesM   of 1575039
 
Jim,

I don't believe that recessions are defined by two quarters of negative GDP growth anymore. If it were, the Recession would have an "Official Start Date" of January 1, 2001; not March 2001. :o)

Here's an interesting remark from the group that is responsible for the "Official" March, 2001 date; marking the beginning of the recession.

From the NBER's website (FAQs):

"Question: Is the NBER committee considering re-dating the beginning of the recession, based on the revised GDP data which seem to indicate that the peak of the last cycle was reached before your current date? Has the committee ever before changed a cycle date based on new information?"

"Answer: In the past, the NBER has made some small changes to cycle dates, most recently in 1975.... The committee would change the date of a recent peak or trough if it concluded that the date it had chosen was incorrect. However, the committee believes that consideration of revising the date of the peak should wait until the results of the major rebenchmarking of the GDP estimates currently being undertaken by the Bureau of Economic Analysis are announced in December 2003."
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