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Technology Stocks : Cascade Communications (CSCC)
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To: Peter who wrote (1785)1/24/1997 5:55:00 PM
From: space cadet   of 3743
 
Good work Peter. I too forecast that CSCC was heading toward 38 or so, though I admit I didn't think it would come this quickly. Man I'm in almost as much pain as CSCC shareholders because I just instinctively knew that CSCC was going to fall today and yet I didn't buy those Feb 60 puts. I looked at them, but I "rationally" thought that CSCC would meet those numbers (since everyone this quarter seems to be doing that) but CSCC would only fall 10 points. Because of the heavy premium on those puts I would only make a few bucks if that happened and so not worth the risk, so said I "rationally". But something inside me was saying that now was CSCC's turn to do its SHVA imitation. From now on I'm going to stick with my hunches. Anyway, I'm glad to see that some of us made a lot of money today. And yes I think it may go to 35-38, but I suspect there will be a dead cat bounce first. Anyone think CSCC will bounce?

And congrats to everyone on this thread. On most other threads on SI all you hear is dumb bulls touting their holdings. This thread is different. I think the consensus on this thread was that CSCC is definitely headed for a fall, and not worth more that 55 objectively. Looks like reality has finally caught up to CSCC. Incidentally, I still really like CSCC and may get in in the low 40's high 30's. If CSCC gets back to 55 by 1998 that's an easy 35% gain. Not bad. Only scary point is Macromedia, another old favorite of mine last year. It's now down to 1/4 of its 1996 high and even at 11 its P/E ratio is XXX rated. That's because its earnings collapsed, caught in the Apple soap opera. If CSCC has a bad earnings quarter we're looking at a 15 dollar stock, but I personally don't think that's going to happen. Networking is too hot and CSCC still has good products and good people.
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