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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 269.15

+4.8%

3:06 PM EST

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To: Bobbie Lee who wrote (1826)	9/12/1996 5:16:00 PM
From: gugie	of 70976

Bobbie Lee, The picture IS fairly grim for the next few quarters. For the last few years AMAT has been able to predict with some accuracy market conditions looking 2 quarters forward. After that, they prediction was for a "leveling off". For about 4 years, the first part of the prediction was correct, but the leveling never occured. I got used to hearing "leveling off" and translating to "we have no idea what our customers will do". If you're pissed off, be pissed because AMAT hasn't been good at looking past 2 quarters. But then again, neither has anyone else. It's like predicting weather; 2 days out I can guess pretty well, but I have no idea what's happening next week. Am I pissed? No, but I've learned my lesson that this is a volatile industry, and can turn on a dime in the short run. The postings I read about going short, long, using options, etc. make me queasy.

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