Since 11/2, there have been various stages of dealing with what happened. Anger, denial, claims of fraud, etc., etc. Blaming Kerry for "quitting." More recently, talk has shifted to procedural issues like how to fix the voting system (didn't we DO this four years ago? Apparently not.)
What has become clear to me, reading between the lines and ignoring a lot of shit (sorry) is that THIS ELECTION IS NOT OVER. Floating around in various threads is the notion that several states are still counting votes (Ohio and New Mexico principally, but also Iowa and Nevada).
I made a comment here this morning about the 155,000 provisional ballots in Ohio, and the critical importance of the requested recount, so as to get to the 93,000 undervotes.
Folks, it's not over. I don't think the Kerry folks think it's over either. If I'm right, and if it comes out the way I think it might, it will be the greatest stealth campaign in the history of the world, quite frankly.
Let's pull it together. Right now, it's 286-252 in favor of Bush. Ohio has not even begun to count the provisional ballots. There are 155,000 or so. Ohio has a history of provisional ballots, based on state law. In 2000, 90% of the ballots counted, and of those I understand that 90% were for Gore. Applying that standard to the 155,000 would give Kerry 125,550 additional votes, and Bush 13,950. That would narrow the margin from 132,000 (the 136,000 figure includes the now-infamous Gahanna 4,000 vote error in Franklin County) down to about 24,600. Originally, this was why Kerry conceded; he just couldn't get it done on the provisional ballots alone.
Ahh, but now there's a new development. A recount (or an "audit," as one diary called it). Fine. Whatever, call it what you want. But Kerry couldn't ask for it, because he'd be called a sore loser, Al Gore with a Brahmin accent. The lawyers are there, they're sniffing around, they're ready to deal with the shenanigans. But (here's the great part) it's not Kerry's recount. The media is treating the Cobb/Badnarik recount request as a joke, but it's not. If the recount is held, the first thing elections officials have to do is dust off the 93,000 undervotes on punch cards (dear God, not again). And yes, Ohio has a uniform state standard: 0 or 1 corners attached, vote counts. 2 or 3, no dice. So the recount won't be shut down -- and Blackwell can't change the rules. God, I love Bush v. Gore (never thought I'd write those words).
Again, look at the history. Traditionally, 90% count, and the split is about 4-1 for Democrats -- undervotes are almost exclusively from poor and/or minority areas. Take 93,000, 90% is 83,700. 80% of that is 66,960 for Kerry, with 16,740 for Bush. That 24,600 vote Bush lead after the provisionals now goes to . . . . fanfare, please . . . . ladies and gentlemen, I give you the 44th President of the United States, John Kerry, by a 25,660 vote margin in Ohio.
Now the margins could change, most likely on the undervotes. Let's say Kerry only gets 70%, rather than 80, of the undervotes. He still wins, this time by about 9,000 votes.
Obviously, it would help if we could turn around New Mexico, Iowa and/or Nevada as well, to create a cushion for legal challenges and to create more legitimacy to this process.
OHIO HAS NOT EVEN BEGUN THIS PROCESS OF COUNTING PROVISIONAL BALLOTS, OR THE RECOUNT THAT HAS BEEN REQUESTED BY COBB AND BADNARIK.
Since 11/2, Blackwell has been trying to make rule changes, like the one where he tried to say that if you left your birthday off the provisional ballot, it didn't count. Sorry, Ken, there's a prior rule about that, and it says that the absence of the birthday is not enough to disqualify a provisional ballot. Privately, I suspect they are absolutely freaking out, because Bush v. Gore limits their ability to pull post-election shenanigans like changing the rules.
I think that one of the reasons that Bush has been accepting a lot of Cabinet resignations now, rather than in January, is to create an inevitability in the minds of the public and the media that this is a done deal. No one in the media is dealing with the analysis I set forth herein, which is not my own analysis, but simply a mathematical exercise gleaned from what little public information is out there. The media went home on 11/3, and other than a few smirking
"conspiracy" stories since, has not really addressed the final counting of votes in Ohio or elsewhere. Bush's lead in New Mexico has been cut from 14,000 to less than 6,000, and they're still counting.
Repeat after me: it ain't over til they count the votes. Which means it ain't over. Will Kerry win? No idea. Can he win? Yes. Update [2004-11-14 17:33:59 by jsmdlawyer]: A couple of good questions have been raised. I will try to answer. My understanding is that the 93,000 figure is undervotes, not spoiled ballots, which includes overvotes. If someone has information to the contrary, please let me know. I also understand that Ohio law is very unfavorable to overvotes. Second, my math doesn't include the usual "errors" and "mistakes" that get made, almost invariably in favor of the Republican. Who'da thunk it? Or "machine errors" in Cuyahoga and Franklin Counties (I believe there are potentially a lot of votes in Franklin, because the turnout numbers seem very off in several precincts in Columbus, including where I worked on Election Day, and I've heard similar questions raised in Cleveland as well). So I don't think that my analysis is anything approaching a best case scenario, but a reasonable middle ground. Bottom line: is this a 100-1 shot? NO WAY. Is it a slam dunk for our guy? Similarly, absolutely not. If I had to lay odds right now, I'd say it's 50-50. If that sounds chickenshit, sorry; but I bet it's better odds than you thought when you woke up today. ;-)
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