KazMunaiGas, NBL, OPHR.L, Permian Party, PetroChina , Rosneft,
Global explorers,
Things We Learned This Week,
US EIA Petroleum Statistics,
India Gas Sector
KazMunaiGas E&P (KMGq.L)
Dividend of $1.8/ADR ahead of our forecast;
Second environmental fine dismissed; Positive reaction expected
19 March 2014 ¦ 7 pages ir.citi.com
Noble Energy Inc (NBL)
Highlights From The Road With Management; Reiterate Buy
19 March 2014 ¦ 12 pages ir.citi.com
We spent some time on the road this week with Noble Energy Chairman and
CEO, Charles Davidson, visiting investors in New York City. Our confidence in
the name remains strong with an acute focus on returns and one of the highest
and most visible long-term growth profiles among large-cap E&Ps.
Ophir Energy plc (OPHR.L)
Gabon loses some shine
21 March 2014 sendspace.com
Bottom Line. Padouck Deep, the first well of three offshore Gabon in 2014,
was dry and appeared to provide an unhelpful readacross to Ophir's remaining
potential in the area. We remove it from our valuation and increase risking on
the remaining Gabon prospects. The Full Year Results contained little new of
note. We cut our TP by 46p to 346p and reiterate our Outperform rating, but
remove Ophir from the SMID Focus List.
Permian Party
Significant Leverage at WNR, DK, ALJ, ALDW
21 March 2014 sendspace.com
Bottom Line: Permian crude discounts have widened much more than
expected in 1H14. This prompts us to refresh our Permian crude
supply/pipe/rail offtake model. If pipe is the marginal extraction method for
crude, Midland-Cushing could be $<1/bbl. However, if rail is marginal, then
the spread could be >$4/bbl. Our probability weighted assessment is that the
differential would be c$3-4/bbl in 2016-17, unless pipe capacity is expanded.
This could add up to c30% to our EBITDA forecasts (and 7% to consensus –
so this already may be partly reflected in consensus) at companies with a
high share of Midland crude in their refining mix such as ALJ (most
sensitive), WNR and DK. In the first half of this year, E&P companies in the
Midland will face wider discounts (currently >$10/bbl). In 2H14, we believe
new pipes will alleviate the discounts at least until 2016. In the longer term,
building more pipes to the Gulf makes the most economic sense. Eventually,
there will be solutions to A
PetroChina (0857.HK)
FY13 Results: Recurring EPS Fell, Despite Gas Growth
21 March 2014 ¦ 27 pages ir.citi.com
Rosneft (ROSN.MM)
Corporate governance update – Management team increases holdings by 39%
20 March 2014 ¦ 7 pages ir.citi.com
Global explorers
Fortnightly - You know the drill!
21 March 2014 sendspace.com
With the disappointment in Gabon and Morocco it's been a tough week for
offshore exploration! Attention now shifts to (hopefully) lower risk onshore Africa.
In this note we outline the multi-billion barrel potential onshore Kenya and
Ethiopia, and the activity ramp-up over the next 2 years which could turn the
region into a major oil province. Our preferred onshore Kenya play is Africa Oil.
Things We Learned This Week
Oilfield Services & Equipment
20 March 2014 sendspace.com
US EIA Petroleum Statistics
19 March 2014 ¦ 27 pages ir.citi.com
When one door closes another one opens... Cushing crude
inventories continue to draw down but PADD III bloats
India Gas Sector
Sector Review
Higher gas prices: In the home stretch
20 March 2014 sendspace.com |
