I think the numbers that count here are the odds on Nov 6th. TWT.
Iowa Electronics Market watch
[Greg Pollowitz 10/29 01:47 AM]
From the WSJ Washington Wire:
The Democratic surge has stopped, but the party remains the odds-on favorite for controlling the House of Representatives after the Nov. 7 election, electronic trading markets indicate.
Trading activity in both the Iowa Electronics Market, an online marketplace operated for research purposes (it limits wagering to $500 per person) and the Irish-betting site Intrade (populated, we believe, by political junkies) points toward the Senate remaining in Republican hands and the House flipping to the Democrats.
IEM trading on Friday gave the Democrats a 67% probability of retaking the House, the same as two weeks ago. The number was the same on Intrade, down a bit from 69% two weeks ago. As for Republicans retaining control of the Senate, the two markets were also in sync — indicating a probability of about 75%.
On Intrade, some Senate races caught our eye. Trading activity indicated Republican Bob Corker is comfortably ahead of Democrat Harold Ford in Tennessee, trading at nearly 65%; in Missouri Republican Jim Talent gets a 50% probability to Democrat Claire McCaskill's 45%; in Connecticut, Sen. Joe Lieberman, running as an independent, is well ahead of Democrat Ned Lamont with the latest trading giving him a 95% probability; in Rhode Island, traders put the likelihood of Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse defeating Republican Sen. Lincoln Chafee at 84%; in Virginia, the betting is on Republican Sen. George Allen (74%); in Pennsylvania, it's Democrat Bob Casey (92%); in Ohio, Democrat Sherrod Brown (91%); in Montana, Democrat Jon Tester (75%); in New Jersey, Democrat Bob Menendez (66%); and Maryland, Democrat Ben Cardin (76%) . –Mary Lu Carnevale |
