Astromet Climate Forecast: 2020-2022
by Theodore White, astromet.sci
Deep Global Cooling 2020s, 2030s & 2040s:
The Sun's Grand Minimum: June 5, 2019
'Heavy Rain & Floods: How to Relocate & Prepare'
Plus, The Pocket-Sized Monster Terrifying Farmers
The climate and weather of global cooling under the quiescent Sun is no joke. It is very real and many people are experiencing only the beginning of far worse to come in the years and decades ahead.
My astrometeorological outlook for the 2020s, 2030s & 2040s call on everyone to think long and hard about where they reside and how to relocate and prepare for the worst weather imaginable.
If you are reading this, then you will know that since 2017, when global cooling officially got underway that torrential rains and floods throughout the world has been on the increase.
As for the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season, I expect it to be an above average season, but this year most of the storms will be short-lived and weak.
Care will still need to be taken through this hurricane season as astronomic transits show that there will be 17 tropical cyclones; 15 named tropical storms, six hurricanes - of that, at least two will be major hurricanes in 2019.
At the end of this forecast post, you will find my Astromet Climate Outlook for 2020-2022. I provide exact dates on the seasons to come for the next two solar years.
Meanwhile,
The Midwestern United States has been experiencing major floods since mid-March 2019 - especially along the Missouri River and its tributaries through the states of Nebraska, Missouri, South Dakota, Iowa and Kansas.
Along with flooding of the Mississippi River, additional states have had their levee systems strained; devastating farmland and agriculture and forcing people to evacuate businesses and homes.
Consider this,
As of June 2019, at least a quarter million acres of fertile farmland throughout the Mississippi Delta have been underwater since February and March in many areas.
Some farmers have not planted a single crop this year and the losses will be devastating to local economies.
This year, it has become a fact that corn planting is the most delayed than it ever has been in recorded American history.
June 5, 2019 was the final planting date for corn in most of the states of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio.
After that, farmers can decide to plant corn or take a prevented planting payment for fields or partial fields they intended to plant to corn.
The date of planting will impact expected returns from corn planting.
Overall, the returns from corn planting decline with later planting, causing taking the prevent plant payment to look more attractive.
In general, cash prices must increase from current levels before planting corn results in the highest return in most situations analyzed.
If all costs of production need to be incurred, cash corn prices need to exceed $4.50 on June 6, 2019 if the RP has an 85% coverage level.
This break-even price goes over $5.00 per bushel by the second week of the late planting period.
Planting after the final planting date will have the following impacts on returns.
Expected yield will be reduced. Later planting will result in lower yields.
A yield decline is built into our projections and the delayed planting module at a rate of 2.2 bushels per day beginning on June 1.
A lower yield will enter the producer’s insurance actual production history (APH), typically for the next 10 years.
In contrast, prevent plant has no impact on APH yield.
The APH is used in calculating yield and revenue guarantees for common crop (COMBO) insurance products.
In most cases APH will be a trend-adjusted APH, for simplicity it’s referred to throughout as APH.
Revenue guarantee is reduced.
The revenue guarantee is reduced one percent per day during the 20-day late planting period.
After the late planting period, the guarantee will be 60% of the original guarantee.
This effectively reduces the coverage level of the crop insurance policy.
The effective guarantees for a policy with an 85% coverage level are:
- 85% on June 5, 2019 the final planting date marks the last day farmers are eligible for full coverage at the original coverage level.
- 79% on June 12, 2019
- 73% on June 19, 2019
- 68% on June 25, 2019
- And 51% on June 26, 2019 which is the end of the late planting period, as coverage does not decline from this date forward.
Also know that these declines in revenue guarantee have more of an impact on expected returns from planting season than yield declines at an 85% coverage level.
This year's constant deluge of rain and the floods has led many to wonder if agriculture is finally experiencing the effects of global cooling and the quiescent Sun?
I can answer that question with a resounding YES.
And far worse is to come.
'HEAVY RAINS & FLOODS: HOW TO RELOCATE & PREPARE'
The quiescent Sun and its declining ultraviolet radiance has caused the Earth's thermosphere not only to contract, but also to force cooling on the layers of atmosphere below.
It has allowed the cold of outer space to penetrate enough to cool the Earth's stratosphere which in turn cools the troposphere.
Huge amounts of water vapor in the troposphere, when cooled, turns into precipitation of hail, snow and rain - and in very copious amounts.
Since 2017, there have been numerous reports of months of rainfall falling in mere hours and days over various regions of the world - causing great flash floods.
And now, rural regions are feeling the wrath of this first phase of global cooling (2017-2029) and it is going to get far worse in the years and decades to come.
When I forecasted a late Winter of 2019 I knew that the result would be heavy snowfall, then snowmelt and floods compounded by the wet autumn of 2018 that preceded it.
From January until early March 2019 the average temperatures in the American Midwest remained in the low 20 to 30 average degree Fahrenheit range, with record snowfall in many areas, including an early March blizzard, with up to three feet on the ground in some areas.
That was followed three weeks later with a second 'bombogenesis' storm adding several more feet of snow. All that snow was to melt with the arrival of the vernal equinox.
In Nebraska, over a three (3) day period from March 11 to March 13, 2019 temperatures rose to 60 degrees Fahrenheit, combined with 1.5 inches of rain.
That quickly melted the heavy snowfall, but the frozen ground was not able to absorb anymore precipitation which led to major runoff into local streams and rivers.
As many rivers and stream were frozen over with thick layers of ice, when the powerful current of water finally broke it dislodged massive chunks of ice that traveled downstream bulldozing anything in its way while also melting as the early spring Sun rose higher in the skies.
'FALL ARMYWORM ON THE MARCH'
In my forecast, the ongoing trade war between the U.S. and China is going to turn in the favor of the United States which will win.
One of the major problems facing China other than its unfair trade practices is that China has less arable farmland and is threatened not only by the African Swine Fever virus that is destroying China and Asia's hog industries - and now China is about to face the voracious Fall Armyworm.
The Fall Armyworm is now swarming at least 15 of China's provinces and rapidly spreading.
Bloomberg reported on June 2, 2019:
"The fall armyworm is hungry, on the move and scaring farmers the world over.
The crop-devouring pest has spread from the Americas to Africa and Asia, gorging on rice, corn, vegetables, cotton and more.
Europe, Australia and Southeast Asia could be next.
In its first three years in Africa alone, it inflicted $13.3 billion of crop losses.
A recent arrival in China, the fast-moving grub may infest the country’s entire grain-producing farmland within a year.
With food supply chains already facing disruption from the trade war and a global epidemic killing pigs - the world is bracing for the advance of what’s been called the “pocket-sized monster.”
It’s actually a caterpillar, not a worm. Fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda) is native to the North and South American tropics and measures about 3-4 centimeters (1 to 1.5 inches.)
The grubs have a distinctive upside down Y on their heads and four dots on their second-to-last segment.
They get their name from the way they advance en masse with military precision, feasting on the leaves and stems of some 186 plant species, including economically important crops such as wheat, soybeans and sugarcane.
The aggressive munching can denude crops, cutting corn yields by 20-50% and sorghum by 16%.
What’s more, a female moth can lay as many as 1,000 eggs during her lifetime, reproduce in a month under favorable conditions and fly up to 100 kilometers (62 miles) in a single night.
Multiple generations can traverse some 2,000 kilometers during the species’ annual migration.
They are so ravenous that the young caterpillars feast on their own siblings, ensuring that only 1 to 3 fully grown larvae remain on each plant.
They were detected for the first time in Africa - in the western nations of Benin, Nigeria, Sao Tome and Principe, and Togo - in early 2016.
The fall armyworm is now in virtually all of sub-Saharan Africa. In July 2018, it was confirmed in India and Yemen.
By January 2019 it had been reported in Bangladesh, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Thailand and China.
Advancing from China’s southern border, the pest had affected 90,000 hectares (222,000 acres) of grain production in 15 provinces as of late May.
Authorities have employed an emergency plan to monitor and respond, but it’s predicted fall armyworm will reach the corn belt in the northeast by June 2019.
There’s a high probability that it will spread to the entire country’s grain-producing area in the next year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture says, since most farmers don’t have the means or training to effectively manage it.
That may push them to grow crops that aren’t susceptible, such as cassava and sweet potatoes.
The damage to existing crops and any switch to new plants might exacerbate disruptions to food supply caused by a nationwide outbreak of African swine fever and an ongoing trade war with the U.S.
Where it will go next depends on the weather.
Fall armyworm has only invaded areas with a climate similar to its tropical home.
In China, it’s projected to move northward as spring temperatures rise and crops develop along major growing areas in the center, north and, eventually, the northeast.
Seasonal factors, such as the timing of the monsoon and the number of typhoons, will influence its movement and impact. South and Southeast Asia and Australia also have favorable climates, not to mention strong trade and transportation links with infested countries, putting Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines at high risk.
The Fall Armyworm advance into Europe is harder to predict as small areas of Spain, Italy and Greece might provide suitable conditions, but low temperatures does bring the Fall armyworm march to a stop.
WHAT'S NEXT:
'ASTROMET CLIMATE OUTLOOK: 2019-2022'
Preparation for the extreme weather of global cooling will include relocating to less high-risk regions in the near future as the new decade of the 2020s begins next year.
It will mean making serious plans to get to safer and/or higher ground as well as in finding regions that support your family's lifestyle, careers and professions.
Those living in high risk regions have already been evacuated from the flood zones but many will return after the floodwaters have receded.
But I warn those who do, that they will face even greater floods to come and many will be forced to relocate for good.
It is far wiser for those looking to relocate to make preparations now as the weather of global cooling under the Sun's Grand Minimum will become far worse.
Those interested in a personalized forecast can contact me at astro730@gmail.com.
The climate between 2020 and 2022 will see more irregularity of the seasons under the Sun's quiescent phase.
It provides time for those looking to make preparations and/or to relocate to do so with some favorable conditions, including an Indian Summer perfect for relocating before the terrible and long polar vortex winter season of 2021-2022.
My Astromet climate outlook for 2020 shows a warmer, but another wet year in 2020. The year is highly variable.
According to my calculations,
The Winter of 2019-2020 for the northern hemisphere will begin on November 25, 2019 but will end on February 8-9, 2020.
It will be colder and snowier than normal in December 2019, with several snowstorms for the Upper Midwest, and eastern third of the nation taking before Christmas 2019. It will be a 'White Christmas' for many later this year.
The month of January 2020 will see mid-winter conditions underway across two-thirds of the nation, especially the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern U.S.
However the winter of 2019- 2020 will race by fast and end with the last of several snowstorms falling on eastern U.S. coast Feb. 7-9, 2020 that will then melt quickly.
The Spring of 2020 will arrive more than a full month earlier than usual in the northern hemisphere with flowers in full bloom by late March 2020.
Depending on location, there will be more crop difficulties in the Midwest through April, May and June 2020 with a mixture of highly variable weather:
From warmer-than-normal temperatures to drier than normal conditions in April and the first half of May; followed by gusting winds and torrential downpours the second half of May into all June 2020 - leading to concerns of blight, dry to muddy fields and increased pest activity on crops.
The Spring of 2020 will be a very long one - from Feb. 8, 2020 to August 8, 2020 with seesaw average to above average temperatures and high humidity.
The Summer of 2020 does not begin until August 8, 2020 in my outlook and will be followed an Indian Summer according to my astromet climate forecast.
The Indian summer of 2020 pushes the classic fall season back to a start date October 31, 2020 with drier weather conditions.
This will allow farmers an extended harvest with Indian summer weather lasting lasting well into December 2020 as the short and late Winter of 2021 will not begin until January 8, 2021 and will end on March 24, 2021.
The Spring of 2021 will be a traditional season that begins on March 24, 2021 to June 2, 2021, with summerlike conditions beginning several weeks ahead of the solstice of June 20-21, 2021.
The Summer of 2021 will also be a traditional summer, but will last only until August 17, 2021 as the autumn season gets underway a full month earlier.
Fall 2021 will end on November 5, 2021 when the horrendous polar vortex winter season of 2021-22 gets underway - a six month winter - ending finally on May 5, 2022.
That is my general outlook for the solar years 2020 to 2022.
~ Theodore White, astromet.sci |
