Bush Gains in Polls as Iraq, Terrorism Concerns Grow (Update2)
April 20 (Bloomberg) -- President George W. Bush has gained against Democratic Senator John F. Kerry among voters concerned about the war in Iraq and as Bush's re-election organization has conducted a $50 million advertising campaign, two polls show.
The surveys, for Cable News Network/USA Today and ABC News/Washington Post, show Bush leading Kerry among registered voters by 3 percentage points to 5 percentage points. A third poll, by Zogby International, shows Kerry ahead of Bush by 3 points. They were conducted from Thursday to Sunday.
Representatives from both campaigns said the differences in the surveys indicate the race remains close. Presidential scholar Stephen Hess of the Brookings Institution in Washington said Bush may be benefiting from heightened worries about the war as U.S. troops confront an insurgency that has killed more than 90 U.S. military personnel over the past three weeks.
``I think it could be modestly described as a rally around the flag effect,'' said Hess, who called the poll numbers ``staggeringly good news'' for the president.
All three polls show Iraq and terrorism have become more important to voters, while the economy remains the top single issue. In the ABC/Washington Post poll, for example, 23 percent named Iraq as the main issue in the election, compared with 10 percent who cited it in a March poll.
Terrorism, Economy
The war on terrorism was identified by 22 percent, compared with 17 percent in March. The economy was cited as the most important voting issue by 26 percent, down from 36 percent in the previous survey.
The CNN/USA Today poll showed Bush, 57, leading Kerry, 60, by 47 percent to 44 percent among registered voters when consumer activist and independent candidate Ralph Nader is included among the choices. In a two-candidate race, Bush leads 50 percent to 46 percent among registered voters.
The survey, conducted April 16-18, interviewed 877 registered voters and has an error margin of plus or minus 4 percentage points, according to data posted on USA Today's Web site.
The ABC/Washington Post poll shows Bush leading Kerry 48 percent to 43 percent among registered voters with Nader, 70, drawing 6 percent. When Nader is dropped from the question, it's 49 percent for Bush, 48 percent for Kerry, a statistical tie, according to ABC.
That survey was conducted April 15-18 among 1,201 adults and has an overall error margin of 3 percentage points. No breakdown for the number of registered voters sampled was given.
`A Fight'
The Zogby poll gave Kerry, a four-term U.S. senator from Massachusetts, the edge with 47 percent to Bush's 44 percent in a two-way race. Both drew 45 percent support when Nader was included. Zogby interviewed 1,049 likely voters April 15-17. The poll has an error margin of 3.1 percentage points.
``This is exactly where we thought we would be. It is going to be a fight,'' said David Morehouse, a Kerry adviser.
``When one examines the totality of the horse-race data, it is clear the race remains stable and even,'' Mark Mellman, who conducts polls for Kerry's campaign, wrote in a two-page memo released to reporters traveling with the candidate in Florida.
Averages of national polls over the last two weeks show the race is tied, he says.
``Beneath the surface the data contains ominous signs for President Bush,'' Mellman wrote. The Zogby poll showed sentiment for Bush's re-election to be ``extraordinarily weak'' at 43 percent, and 51 percent said it's time for someone new in the White House, according to the memo.
Bush Support `Strong'
Scott Stanzel, a spokesman for the Bush campaign, said the polls show ``that President Bush's support remains resilient and strong.''
``We've always said it will be a close race, perhaps even as close as it was in 2000,'' Stanzel said. That's why we're putting together the largest presidential campaign in U.S. history.''
Bush's overall approval rating was 52 percent in the CNN/USA Today survey and 51 percent in the ABC/Washington Post poll, the same levels as in early March. On the economy, 52 percent said they disapproved of the job Bush was doing in the CNN/USA Today poll. Fifty-four percent disapproved in the ABC/Post survey.
Growth in the U.S. economy and Bush's campaign ads also helped the president, Hess said.
The U.S. has had a net loss of 1.8 million jobs since Bush took office. The economy added 308,000 jobs added in March, the biggest increase since April 2000, and U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow told a Senate Appropriations subcommittee today that, ``The economy is on a good, strong path.''
He said private sector forecasts that the economy will generate an average of 180,000 new positions a month through October are ``well-supported.''
Bush's campaign began running ads last month in so-called swing states, such as Ohio and Pennsylvania, that both parties have identified as key to the November election. The first series of ads sought to portray Bush as a strong leader. Later ads have focused on criticizing Kerry, calling him weak on defense, in favor of higher taxes and inconsistent in the positions he takes on issues.
quote.bloomberg.com |
