As I had feared, last week’s happy news was a wee bit of an outlier, so with apologies to Robert Browning … (also, spoiler included)
The game's nearly over
And the week’s at its end;
Markets are closed;
Work on due reports;
Our hopes now take wing;
Red Ink is the norm:
ALONER’s in First Place —
No change with the world
A decent week for the market generally, NASDAQ composite up +2.4%. Biotech stock indicies? Not so much (down roughly -4% to -6%).
There were many more losers than winners in the portfolio chosen stocks. The big winner for the week was KZIA, +29% of the original price, more than enough to erase the loss of -16% the previous week. The only news to drive this was announcing a publication of some their results in an academic journal, but a more likely explanation is a market reassessment of the preliminary stage one trial results announced the previous week concluding that they were not as big a sign of problems in future performance. CABA’s +20% for the week was driven by better than expected performance in the actual released 3rd quarter financials’s on top of last week’s +35% from just a sense of antici….pation. CRIS (+14%) might be a delayed response to THEIR third quarter results announced COB on Thursday of the previous week. None of these were amongst the YTD top five, whose relative rankings were unchanged.
Losers? The worst five stocks dropped much more (-27% to -41%) than the top five gainers (+6.2% to +28%) for the week. The -41% slide in OCUL is apparently a reaction to their third quarter investment call, even if they reported an essential break-even earnings per share (-$0.01) which massively exceeded an expected loss of -$0.29. ATRA released the results of a Phase 2 trial of their MS treatment on Thursday, showing that more improvement was shown in the placebo arm, and perhaps not surprisingly dropped -32% of their initial price. This was enough to put them at 4th in the YTD big losers list (-93%).
Looking at the portfolio results, there is some residual glow from the previous weeks stellar returns, as a drop in the average portfolio of -$5.3k didn’t completely wipe out the previous week's atypical +$7.5k. Looking at the individual portfolios, we’ve gone from last week’s "everyone’s a winner" to this week where once again only one contestant was in the black, ALONER (+$1.5k), thanks to their holding both KZIA and CRIS adding +$4.8k to their portfolio value. Their good week also means that ALONER was able to return to their long held top spot in the YTD rankings from third last week, and is likewise now the only portfolio in the black (+$2.3k), with a pad of $4.7k ahead of second place. ALONER's profit for the week powered them past STEVE LOKNESS’s median performance -5.5k loss, and RKRW’s even poorer return, dominated by a loss of -$4.1k from their OCUL holding. ERIKOTTO bumped up a place to 3rd YTD, and JACK HARTMANN returned to the YTD winners at 7th place.
.Report Time Ranges
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| Recent
| 11/03/2023
| 11/10/23
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| YTD
| 12/31/2022
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| Index Portfolios’ Performance
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| Symbol
| Recent P/L
| Recent %
| YTD P/L
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| ^IXIC
| $3,055.70
| 2.4%
| $31,831.39
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| ^NBI
| -$3,956.40
| -4.3%
| -$11,825.63
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| ^SPSIBI
| -$5,449.91
| -6.3%
| -$19,268.43
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| Share Performance
| Recent Performance
| YTD Performance
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| Top Five
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| Bottom Five
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| Top Five
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| Bottom 5
| Symbol
| P/L / Initial Price
| Symbol
| P/L / Initial Price
| Symbol
| YTD P/L / Initial Price
| Symbol
| YTD P/L/ Initial Price
| KZIA
| 27.8%
| OCUL
| -41.1%
| INZY
| 176.2%
| AVTX
| -98.2%
| CABA
| 20.3%
| ATRA
| -32.3%
| PRVB
| 136.5%
| APTA.L
| -97.7%
| CRIS
| 14.2%
| KRYS
| -29.8%
| LIAN
| 128.5%
| RGTPQ
| -94.7%
| LLY
| 8.2%
| ASRT
| -28.4%
| MOR
| 112.3%
| ATRA
| -93.0%
| HUMA
| 6.2%
| INZY
| -26.7%
| DNTH
| 108.0%
| BLCM
| -86.1%
| Average and Median Portfolio Performance
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| Recent P/L
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| YTD P/L
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| Avg.
| Median
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| Avg
| Median
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| -$5,258.01
| -$5,450.21
| STEVE LOKNESS
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| -$31,664.29
| -$38,269.68
| ARTHUR RADLEY
| Top Seven Portfolio Performances
| Top Recent Performers
| Top YTD Performers
| Contestant (Prev. Rank)
| Recent P/L
| P/L vs. ^SPSIBI
| YTD P/L (Rank)
| Contestant (Prev. Rank)
| YTD P/L
| vs. Top Portfolio
| P/L vs. ^SPSIBI
| Rec. P/L (Rank)
| 1 - ALONER (7)
| $1,509.46
| $6,959.37
| $2,280.25 (1)
| 1 - ALONER (3)
| $2,280.25
| ——
| $21,548.68
| $1,509.46 (1)
| 2 - BULBAMAN (8)
| -$784.48
| $4,665.43
| -$47,687.45 (13)
| 2 - STEVE LOKNESS (1)
| -$2,421.61
| $4,701.86
| $16,846.82
| -$5,450.21 (8)
| 3 - BLADERUNNER (13)
| -$2,018.59
| $3,431.32
| -$25,521.69 (6)
| 3 - ERIKOTTO (4)
| -$3,094.10
| $5,374.35
| $16,174.33
| -$3,741.11 (7)
| 4 - JACK HARTMANN (9)
| -$2,214.04
| $3,235.87
| -$36,341.83 (7)
| 4 - RKRW (2)
| -$9,775.13
| $12,055.38
| $9,493.30
| -$11,646.03 (15)
| 5 - GENEGURU (15)
| -$2,721.74
| $2,728.16
| -$47,589.37 (12)
| 5 - A.J. MULLEN (5)
| -$20,542.28
| $22,822.53
| -$1,273.85
| -$6,048.43 (9)
| 6 - BMAZ001 (14)
| -$2,769.89
| $2,680.01
| -$46,893.23 (11)
| 6 - BLADERUNNER (6)
| -$25,521.69
| $27,801.94
| -$6,253.26
| -$2,018.59 (3)
| 7 - ERIKOTTO (1)
| -$3,741.11
| $1,708.80
| -$3,094.10 (3)
| 7 - JACK HARTMANN (9)
| -$36,341.83
| $38,622.08
| -$17,073.40
| -$2,214.04 (4)
| Top Portfolios’ Contents
| Second Place Recent Performance Portfolio (BULBAMAN)
| Top YTD Performance Portfolio (ALONER)
| Symbol (Rank)
| Current Allocation
| Value/Total | ROI
| YTD Stock P/L
| Recent Stock P/L
| % Current Price Change for $1,000 P/L
| Symbol (Rank)
| Initial Allocation
| Value/Total | ROI
| YTD Stock P/L
| Recent Stock P/L
| % Current Price Change for $1,000 P/L
| ATXS
| 10.0%
| 5.9% | -69.1%
| -$6,910.68
| -$228.34
| 32.4%
| AFMD
| 10%
| 3.4% | -72.3%
| -$9,136.01
| -$515.17
| 28.6%
| BFLY
| 10.0%
| 8.3% | -56.5%
| -$5,650.41
| -$203.25
| 23.0%
| CDTX
| 10%
| 11.9% | -4.0%
| -$501.12
| -$629.97
| 8.2%
| FDMT
| 20.0%
| 19.0% | -50.2%
| -$10,049.53
| -$495.27
| 10.0%
| CLSD
| 10%
| 10.9% | -11.8%
| -$1,487.67
| $151.87
| 9.0%
| IMTX
| 10.0%
| 20.7% | 8.2%
| $815.15
| -$218.14
| 9.2%
| CRDF
| 10%
| 8.7% | -29.7%
| -$3,744.74
| -$977.16
| 11.3%
| OMER
| 10.0%
| 10.6% | -44.7%
| -$4,469.03
| -$132.74
| 18.1%
| CRIS
| 10%
| 6.4% | -47.8%
| -$6,035.66
| $1,677.65
| 15.2%
| RGTPQ
| 5.0%
| 0.5% | -94.7%
| -$4,732.87
| $202.26
| 374.3%
| CRVS
| 10%
| 19.1% | 54.9%
| $6,929.25
| $281.40
| 5.1%
| RFL
| 15.0%
| 27.0% | -5.9%
| -$882.35
| -$80.21
| 7.1%
| KZIA
| 10%
| 11.4% | -7.8%
| -$983.09
| $3,111.37
| 8.6%
| TCON
| 10.0%
| 3.0% | -84.5%
| -$8,454.36
| $551.68
| 64.7%
| DNTH
| 10%
| 23.0% | 86.3%
| $10,900.21
| -$1,022.96
| 4.3%
| VOR
| 10.0%
| 5.1% | -73.5%
| -$7,353.38
| -$180.45
| 37.8%
| MRNA
| 10%
| 5.2% | -57.9%
| -$7,312.77
| -$567.56
| 18.8%
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| PRVB
| 10%
| 0.0% | 136.5%
| $13,651.84
| $0.00
| --
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