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Technology Stocks : Ampex Corp: Digital Storage
AMPX 11.17-6.5%Jan 23 9:30 AM EST
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To: Hal Campbell who wrote (1881)2/19/1997 7:31:00 PM
From: Graeme Smith   of 3256
 
Does anyone know whether the 1997 estimates for AXC or .57 a share include some provision for KM. I would expect not, but for the sake of being cautious I am interested to know.

At the moment, although having lost quite a bit of money on AXC, I am hoping to see it fall some more (have mercy on me). If it was to continue its fall to the mid 6's I would feel confident to invest almost my entire portfolio. At worst I cannot see AXC dropping below a 1997 P/E of 10 (5.7) meaning there would be little downside risk even if KM was never to get off the ground. This, of course assumes that AXC will meet expectations even without KM. On the positive side there is obviously a very big upside to AXC.

On a separate note I don't think it is always very accurate to expect a companies P/E to be in line with its 5 year growth (and certainly not 2 year growth). Most drive and component manufactures (Iomega excepted) have P/E ratios far below their growth rates. This makes me cautious about AXC. I would not expect it to have a forward P/E ratio of more than 10ish.

Again I would ask anyone who is familiar if they know whether 1997 estimates include provision for K.M. profits.

Thanks in advance,

Graeme
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