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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: ild who wrote (18864)9/22/2004 12:41:43 PM
From: ild  Read Replies (1) of 110194
 
Date: Wed Sep 22 2004 12:15
trotsky (crude oil) ID#377387:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
going bonkers again. note: should the recent all time highs be bested, the next reasonable target is approximately $60 bbl. - this is according to my old target study based on fibo relationships of the previous behavior of prices.
my initial target was $45, but since the market has now blown past 45 TWICE i'm beginning to think my long term target may come into view earlier than i thought possible ( 2 years ago i believed that $60 would only become viable once the global Hubbert peak became widely known as having occurred. there is to date no incontrovertible proof that it HAS occurred, and even Campbell thinks 2005 is the peak year. i assumed a more optimistic 2007-2010 originally, but have become doubtful. the reson is that only ONE producing area has actually seen significant output growth in recent years, and that's the FSU - short for 'former Soviet Union'. it is not known how much more growth can be expected from the FSU regions, since Russia treats known reserves as a state secret. but it IS known that several major producing regions HAVE peaked. my preliminary conclusion is that we have enterd a plateau period, during which output growth levels out for a few years, with some regions - FSU and West Africa - still growing, while most others begin their decline ) .
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