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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?
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To: David O'Berry who wrote (18863)12/3/1997 12:11:00 PM
From: vinod Khurana   of 42771
 
David, I disagree with your optimistic forecast on NDS for NT.

I believe that end-users will wait for MSFT to come out with their Active Directory in NT 5.0 before leaping into directory services and especially so from Novell.
MSFT has the ball in its hand. All the company has to do is integrate some portion of Active Directory into its desktop O/S (Win 95 or NT)
and you will have users installing MSFT's product on the server end. It is one reason why NT is taking of.

MSFT knows it has won the war on the server end. NOVL knows it has lost. NOVL can only hope that its loyal customer base installs NDS...to date, I am not convinced that is happening. The dust has not yet settled. NT is on a raging rampage throughout North America.

Ford and MCI recently switched to NT from NetWare. As more of this news breaks out, the situation for NOVL will only get worse.

The stock is currently trading at the $8 1/4 level. My second batch should get filled soon. I am out at $10 - $11 on the next rally but I would not stick my neck out for more than six months in this company...not yet at least.

The best hope for NOVL is to sell out. They should advertise the "FOR SALE" sign while the markets are hot. Who knows what will happen to this mother of all no good stocks if the market tanks as I think it will over the next 12 months.

V.K
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