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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 284.31+5.8%3:59 PM EST
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To: Paul V. who wrote (18882)4/19/1998 11:20:00 AM
From: Ian@SI   of 70976
 
Re: Is there any rationale for price
increases with low BTB # and EPS #?

Yes.

First Book to Bill is a ratio. It might help you better understand stock prices to look at the underlying numbers directly. i.e. While the ratios may be near their low, the total $ billed by the companies has grown substantially since 1991, the first year in your chart.

That annual growth in $ billed has been substantial and is forecast to continue growing substantially especially as semiconductors become more ubiquitous with respect to more and more aspects of daily life on a global basis.

Leading edge equipment companies have been, and, IMO, will very likely continue to be an outstanding way to play that growth in the market. After all, why are you, the bears or the bulls interested in AMAT?

For your specific dates mentioned (July 96 and August 97, bookings were $992M and $1.432B while billings were $1.25B and $1.46B respectively.

Orders (book) have never been smooth nor have they shown a straight line trend especially when looked at on a monthly basis. When looking at the annual numbers, the secular trend becomes clear - even to the blind.

But then it has often been said, "there are none so blind as those who will not see." ;-)
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