Did you happen to see Bill Gate's book The Road Ahead? It takes some assumptions about developments in wireless high speed networks, shrinking computers, secure money transfers, easy interfaces. Puts some interesting twists on commerce, education, liesure and work.
Obviously, you can see Bill is spending toward these goals. Perhaps you could say an investment in Microsoft is buying into today's systems and all the future applications. After all, they have equity stakes in many leading edge companies as well as a monumental internal R&D.
I've had some very good luck lately with Axent AXNT, which provides security.
Lernout en Hauspie LHSPF have interesting applications around speech and language that make the internet more accessible.
General Magic GMGC has some interesting projects going to create a personal assistant that you can use with a mobile phone based on voice recognition.
Microsoft has taken positions in both these companies recently. LHSPF will probably be integrating products into Windows CE for speech.
Then, you'll need to look into ways of payment. Micro debits are the important. These are charges of less than 5 cents. These could be used for viewing documents. Many companies are offering magazines for free over the net, but charging for hardcopies. How long can that last?
If the recently discussed Internet Explorer 5, or code name Chrome describes new coding to down load 3d and video from the net as fast or faster than we get today. They describe advertising quality that will rival TV.
Harmonic Lightwave makes infrastructure gear for developing Hybrid Fiber Coax networks for companies like TCI and MMDS/LMDS wireless cable. These services will offer transfer rates from 10 Mbps to 50Mbps. Most of them don't need to be turned off, so internet use becomes radically different.
I often wonder about selling across borders. I buy a Dell computer in California and I don't have to pay sales tax. That puts some pressure on the local PC store. Actually, I'd like to order a Dell computer from Australia, or some other artificially high price country, but most of these companies still have special prices for the countries you buy from. How long will that last?
I suppose you can learn a lot from watching Amazon.com and read their reports. They have probably developed one of the most visible success stories for selling goods. Certainly, distribution will change. Federal Express has put into place some interesting formats for warehousing and distribtion.
You are right, there are issues beginning today, and those that will play in the future. From an investing standpoint, stocks go up on hype as much as reality. Look at AOL. The still don't make much real money, but look at their subscriber growth.
I think there is an interesting trend today where consumers are buying computers. What software and add on gear are they buying to support these purchases? While hard drive sales have been hurt, software sales look like they should be a great buy. Again, you come back to Microsoft and ask what's going to stop these guys?
Regards,
Mark
PS I wish I hadn't switched my pruchase 2 years ago from Microsoft to Motorola at the last minute because I thought 40 PE was a little high. I still worry that MSFT is too expensive. Will I ever learn? |
