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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Bob Rudd who wrote (18737)3/22/2004 5:17:13 PM
From: Paul Senior  Read Replies (1) of 78717
 
OT: Breaking form, I will try a short sale: MAXS

My record for shorting has been abysmal. Of the very few times in the past few years that I've put on a short, I've not done well at all.

MAXS Recap: Management has rejected a cash buyout for $20. On the buyout offer the stock had scooted up to $22+ where it now remains.

1. If a new or better offer does materialize, I don't see where or why it'd be much higher than current price ($22). (I could be wrong; I don't know what an aggressive buyer would be willing to pay to get this company.)

2. Imo, enough time has passed since the first offer that I would've expected a higher offer, if it were there, to be forthcoming.

3. Prospects for the company remain very good (imo), but it is my opinion that the stock price is high reflecting expectations of a new buyout offer. Absent another offer or an increased offer, I have to expect the stock to drift down below $20.

I'm betting the upside to the stock from $22 is limited, and that in this market with the stock where it is, there's a reasonable chance the stock will drift down if there's no further bid for the company.

Another consideration though is that even if it works out the way I hope, it might take longer than I expect or have patience for. For example, MNY has been above it's buyout offer for a relatively long time imo.
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