Disintegration of Israel’s government looms as Sharon bids to win vote
From Robert Tait in Jerusalem
ARIEL Sharon will today put his political future on the line by forcing his plan to evacuate Jewish settlements in Gaza through a bitterly divided Israeli Cabinet.
After weeks of horsetrading, and following the post ponement of a vote last week, Cabinet will almost certainly vote for the plan, which has the backing of George Bush. But success could come at a heavy price for Prime Minister Sharon, and will probably trigger a drastic re-ordering of Israel’s political landscape.
The worst-case scenario for Sharon is the fall of his government, a prospect his allies were desperately trying to avoid via an 11th-hour compromise.
Sharon has ensured a Cabinet majority for withdrawal from Gaza by sacking two ministers from the far-right, pro-settler National Union (NU), Avigdor Lieberman and Benny Elon. This leaves 10 ministers opposed, against 11 known to be in favour, thus ensuring a majority in today’s vote. But Sharon is creating bitterness in his own Likud party while undermining his right-wing coalition.
With the NU effectively out of the coalition, Sharon’s government has the support of just 61 members of the 120-member Knesset, Israel’s parliament. The coalition will become a minority government if another rightist element, the National Religion Party, carries out its threat to withdraw.
That would leave Sharon relying on the opposition Labour party, led by former prime minister Shimon Peres, to stay in power. He would have to consider inviting it into government, which would be anathema to many in Likud.
Yet Sharon’s problem lies within his own party. After an internal Likud referendum voted against the evacuation last month, three ministers – finance minister Benjamin Netanyahu, foreign minister Silvan Shalom and education minister, Limor Livnat – tried to force him to scrap the policy.
Despite efforts last week to broker a compromise with the three Likud hardliners, Sha ron has pressed ahead. He rejected a proposal that would have seen spending continue on the settlements, home to 7500 Jews, even while preparing to have them evacuated.
Sharon’s determination is at least in part motivated by a desire not to offend President Bush, who risked his own prestige in the Arab world in April by praising the Sharon plan as a “unique opportunity” for peace. White House aides have made little effort to conceal the anger that would greet Sharon if he weakened.
As Sharon put it in an interview with the newspaper Yed ioth Ahronoth on Friday: “The disengagement plan gives Israel very significant advantages in the realm of strengthening its relations with the US, and a failure to pass it would be a mishap for the country.” Earlier in the week he told parliamentarians he had resolved that “there will be no Jew left in Gaza by the end of 2005”.
Continued US support, how ever, would be a pyrrhic victory for Sharon if it spells the end of his government. That is why the immigration minister and Sha ron ally Tzipi Livni was yesterday trying to broker a compromise that would enable Netanyahu, Sha lom and Livnat to vote for the plan and to keep the National Religious Party in the government.
Under Livni’s proposal, the Cabinet would approve the Gaza plan in principle while holding off on any evacuation until a second vote in six to nine months. Livni remained hopeful yesterday, telling Israel Radio: “I certainly think there’s a chance”.
But if her efforts fail, fresh elections – the second in less than 18 months – could well be the result.
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