Wind River going up, up, up! Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Wind River going up, up, up!

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To: JB who wrote (1897)	9/2/1997 12:26:00 AM
From: Richard Karpel	of 10309

From the TechWeb column of a guy named Bill Schaff, who does TechWeb's model portfolio: >>>Q: I just discovered your column and was interested in knowing when you added Wind River to the Model P portfolio, and what your current thoughts are on its recent valuation. A: I bought them on Feb. 28 at $25.40 per share. Wind just posted another upside surprise for the second quarter with revenue of $22 million and $0.14 per share. Analysts will be raising estimates again. This has become somewhat of a momentum stock with all the pluses and minuses that brings. In the short term, it will continue moving upward, but the first time it disappoints, the wall will come tumbling down. Not for the faint of heart. It is expensive by my valuation, though continued upgrades by Wall Street will drive it higher. At $46, it is almost 60 times estimated fiscal 1999 numbers. This is for a company that is growing 35 percent to 45 percent (revenues up 47 percent in latest quarter; gross margins at 82 percent) per annum short-term trending down to an industry average of 30 percent to 35 percent. I am still holding it, but I would not be buying at these price levels. Risk/ reward is not favorable. Hope this helps.<<<

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