jtechkid,>chart and volume people-what does it mean when it seems when amat moves up or tries to break up its on large volume 6-10 mill but when it comes down the volume is relatively light. any opinion.<
IMO, the semi's as a sector has been at the bottom, 40 percentile, of the market. Check the Bull % chart which I have posted. With the market as high as it has been investors have been buying into the sectors with the lower percentiles in an effort to try to get some protection which the market turns south. Check the 10 week moving average. For the first time since 2/17/98 we see that the DW 10 week moving average breaking down beneath the Bull % NYSE and the BP OTC %.
Only four sectors are beneath the 50 percentile, with only the Biomeds in the 30% range. 15 sectors out of 41 DW sectors are 69.1 % and above.
In answer to your question I believe that investors are specifically buying AMAT because it has a near monopoly in the Semi Equip industry, are buying into the lower % sectors and are investing for the longer term where we will see the earnings go up and therefore not selling in large volume.
IMO, Tito's stair step approach is in action. My latest projection using the DW horizontal and vertical methods is $53. However, when it then hits $53 I expect Tom O'Neil's, IBD, "Cup and Handle" approach and momentum to take over and AMAT will then see a big pop.
However, we will probably see a correction before we see Tom O'Neil's pop. It all depends on what the the FED and or a Clinton Impeachment does to the market.
We have the baby boomers pouring $$$$$ into the market with nowhere to go. I sure would not want to be a mutual fund investor. Where would you invest to guarantee the teen percentages for investors?
Naturally, the above is only my opinion and the data which I have reviewed from the Dorsey Wright site. Readers are reminded the old saving, "caveat emptor (buyer/reader beware)."
Paul V. |
