Vi,
Forgive my familiarity, please, if I go too far!
When I was a regular commuter, consulting for major western companies establishing beachheads in the CIS, one of my flip-not-flip fast advices was:
"The last person to ask about what's going on in Russia is a Russian."
Of course, what I really ever meant was that the climate in which pre-90's Russians were wired so pervasive, secret, and cut-off (in the daytime, "outside the kitchen," I mean!) that nobody living there and only there could compare any one thing with any other. There were no choices on the menu, no means to vote on whether to buy a Lada or a Zhiguli or a Zaporochet or a Moskvich or a Volga. But look today: it's Chevvies and Volvos and Lincoln Town Cars, for 4 years the world's #1 market for Mercedes and BMW --- a place where if you have one cell phone, well I have TWO!
Whatever concern I had that it could ever flip back is gone, based on what I saw/felt during this revisit. The vibrance in Moscow is evident. The "nervousness" is down 6 dB. The old bosses are glued to their investments (or they get "a Jewish guy" to mind them). And the kids under 30 don't remember.
Still worried time could go backwards? [I think Boris Grebenshikov wrote some song about this...] (Maybe the best insurance policy for New Russia would probably be to subsidize madman Lukashenko in Minsk.... just for him to be available to point to --- "what it could be" --- if there's ever a glitch in reforms. (Same premise as Microsoft helping to keep Apple strong :-))
Yes, old generations die out.... desperate pensioners, born at just the wrong time to change course... living the shortest lives in the world, to be replaced by world-class consumers and modern factories that don't have to fight embedded factories.... using Russian brilliance --- money from Germany, Korea, Japan and the producer world --- the converted-rich and the global-young produce fantastic wealth... it won't go back.
So much of Russia will never change (there will always be Russians with violins! ;-)
I won't dump my CSCO or INTC --- well, I wasn't fast enough to make the Mayflower, but glad I made the second boat!
Again, please forgive my forwardness. I'm sure you understand.
poka,
/k1b0ý |
