GRI Study Documents Producer Success in Adding to U.S. Oil and Gas
Reserves Gas Research Institute
ARLINGTON, Va., April 13 - U.S. oil and natural gas producers have been far more
successful at adding to reserves in existing fields than most observers thought possible,
according to a study released today by Gas Research Institute.
The study -- Assessment and Characterization of Lower-48 Oil and Gas Reserve
Growth -- concludes that during the past decade producers have replaced production
with new reserve additions and that most of that growth has come from existing fields
rather than from new discoveries, a trend that is likely to continue.
''The growth in reserves has matched the incremental increases in demand and has been
especially strong in the past three years,'' said John Cochener, GRI project manager and
principal analyst-resource evaluation. ''The good news for consumers is that our findings
add to the growing body of data showing that the nation's potential oil and gas reserves
have been significantly underestimated. The good news for producers is that they have
improved their ability to maximize productivity with advanced technology and have
developed greater flexibility in responding to market forces affecting demand and costs.''
Conducted for GRI by Energy and Environmental Analysis Inc., Arlington, Va., the
study used traditional growth curve analysis along with database growth analysis,
evaluated trends in lower-48 reserve growth, and compared recent national growth
assessments. In addition, the new reserve assessment incorporates an analysis of vast
amounts of historical oil and gas production and completion data from public and
commercial databases.
The study produced new, revised estimates of reserve growth for use in the GRI
Hydrocarbon Model, a key component of the annual GRI Baseline Projection. The
result is that crude oil reserve growth potential from existing fields in the continental
United States is estimated to be 29.9 billion barrels, while natural gas reserve growth
potential in existing fields is estimated to be 433.8 trillion cubic feet (385.7 Tcf from
non-associated gas and 48.1 Tcf from associated gas). Growth in natural gas liquids
reserves in existing fields is estimated to be 20.7 billion barrels. The gas estimate is
about 32 percent higher than that of the 1995-96 U.S. Geological Survey/Minerals
Management Service assessment, which is evaluated in GRI's study along with estimates
from several other organizations.
''We are confident that our new estimates represent the most comprehensive and
accurate assessment to date of reserve growth potential, both nationally and regionally,''
said Cochener. ''While there's a consensus that growth potential has been much greater
than previously thought, there is considerable uncertainty involved in assessing this
resource, which has led to the wide range of reserve estimates.''
The GRI study also features:
*In-depth assessments of reserve growth potential for liquids and gas in 16 producing
regions in the continental United States. For example, the study found that regions with
the most significant increases in total gas growth potential are the Mid-Continent, Arkla-
East Texas, San Juan Basin, and East Gulf Onshore.
*Previously unpublished charts and tables based on a consolidation and analysis of
production and completion data from public and commercial databases.
*Comparisons of GRI's reserve estimates with estimates from six outside studies since
1988.
Copies of the report can be ordered directly from the GRI Document Fulfillment
Center, 1510 Hubbard Drive, Batavia, IL 60510, by fax at 630-406-5995. The report
is $35 for GRI members and $50 for nonmembers.
Questions about the publication or ordering should be addressed to Val Megginson at
GRI's Baseline/Gas Resource Analytical Center, Arlington, Va., at 703-526-7832; by
fax: 703-526-7808; or e-mail: vmeggins@gri.org.
GRI, headquartered in Chicago, manages a cooperative research, development and
demonstration program for the mutual benefit of the natural gas industry and its
customers. GRI works with research organizations, manufacturers and its member
companies to develop gas technologies and to transfer new products and information to
the marketplace. |
