Agouron Pharmaceuticals (AGPH) Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : Agouron Pharmaceuticals (AGPH)

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To: Frank Gaertner who wrote (1902)	9/29/1997 6:57:00 PM
From: BarryH	of 6136

Call me Pollyanna, but I never believed much in conspiracy theories.. Basically, what happened today was a splash of cold water in the super bull's faces.."You mean Viracept isn't going to have a 100% market share?"...and this turned to doubt.."What if the benefits of Viracept aren't all it's cracked up to be?...What if it isn't even competative?"..So people sell off..and then they realize the the sky is still there..so people buy back in... I expect when everything is sorted out..and that should be soon..to see AGPH continue to climb upward.. It's present market cap of $1.3BB is way too low for a company with a projection of $500MM in sales...and a recognized research team.. Look at some industry comps... IMNX..market cap $2.5BB with no products sales and a blockbuster drug (recent good Phase 3 data) with projections of apprx $500MM/yr in 1999-2000..IMNX also has a well recognized research team and other products of potentially great significance down the clinical pipeline GLFD- Market cap $600MM with one product with low and dissappointing sales..but with a recognized research team..I point out GLFD to show the value of the research team, organization and product pipeline of AGPH..say $400-600MM All my thoughts are that if AGPH does a GREAT job..their market cap could rise to $3BB or more..and if they only stay the course..then $2.0-2.5BB.. THat's my long term vision..If at the end of the day, they have an inferior AIDS treatment, my assumptions would be crushed..but even with an OK one..the market share they hold now would be very hard to take away.. As for the short term..ain't this volatility fun?

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