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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II
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To: isopatch who wrote (19164)9/18/2002 9:37:41 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack   of 36161
 
Iso re: ["4fig. A few thoughts on inflation/deflation,"]

...good work there... interesting.

I've begun to think that the Fed is trapped.

- and they (Greenspan) know it.

Bill Gross knows it... the Bond Market knows it... Stephen Roach knows it... and we know it (vbg).

I think the Fed is beginning to realize that they were ignoring any possibility of deflation under the misguided myopia of the old WIN (Whip Inflation Now) days.

Now with the DEBT collapse continuing and creating fissures of ROGUE WAVE event RISK that brings further serious Deflationary Risk into reality... I think they realize they know how to both ultimately combat and cure inflation... but, they are in unchartered territory with deflation.

They must Inflate and accept the risk that they err' to the inflationary side... because they know how to control and turn inflation; but once deflation arrives... they are basically impotent.

I think we should "anticipate" that the FED will inflate and will do so to the degree that they error to the inflationary side... and do stop deflation.

And GOLD & TIPS will be the winners in that environment ...as well as housing values - if they do it in time.

Timing will be the key... they may not have as much as they think they have... this is a time to be proactive and pre-emptive... but, sadly; I'm not so confident that they will be.

I think they'll be forced into a massive pump via a crisis event triggering a series of crisis events.

I think we must wait for at least one more major "Rogue Wave" event crisis to rock the markets... be it a domestic bio-incident, Iraq War & $60 Oil, or a JPM/Derivatives - LTCM esque meltdown.

Sadly, it's when, not if - imho.
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