Hi Tom,
Is anyone else looking at the ValueWave Graph? Just want to know if I'm wasting my time......
I'm watching it. I've never abandoned the Value Line strategies. As far as your ValueWave graph goes, I don't really understand the "numbers" behind it, that is, the specific data set you've used to construct the graph, but I certainly do understand the difference between "bullish" and "bearish"... Sometimes... <g>
I run daily screens of the Value Line data (I use the expanded edition, so I get 7000+ stocks daily.)
My main screen is one for growth, as my preferred investment style is LTBH (long term, buy and hold) coupled with GAARP (growth at a reasonable price). As you're well aware, this style has been out of favor with the markets for some time now. Back in the 1990s, I used to filter out 70 to 100 stocks daily for further research. That number of potential investment stocks dwindled to as low as 2 or 3 a day during the 2000s, as most of the growth in the markets was bought out by large investment funds (pension funds, mutual funds, hedge funds), leaving little or nothing for the individual investor.
Hmmm... I think I can safely change from GAARP to GAARL (growth at a reasonable loss)... Whaddayaknow! Look at that. I'm halfway there already.
My secondary style is value with minimum long term risk. In the 1990s, this screen produced very little in the way of potential investments, maybe 10 to 15 stocks per day. During the 2000s, this screen swelled in potential investments (maybe 30 or 40 a day) as value plays were largely ignored by the major players. Most of the value plays produced by the screen were nothing more than bottom fishing stocks, mere guesses that these stocks had reached rock bottom and were due for some sort of reversal to some higher price. That didn't happen for many of them, as they either went bankrupt or were relegated to the OTCBB.
Today's screens produced 161 potential growth stocks (the exact same stocks as yesterday) and 1122 potential value plays (yesterday was "only" 699, so today's screen had the exact same 699 stocks from yesterday plus an additional 423 new stocks). As you can see, the market volatility is so high that my screens are relatively useless. I certainly cannot research that many stocks looking for the 4 or 5 or 20 stocks that represent the best hopes for future returns. And, even if I could, the vast majority of the research available, whether from Value Line or any other source, is obsolete in that virtually none of it reflects what has happened to the global economy over the past few weeks. None of it reflects any potential decreases in consumer spending, whether domestic or foreign. Things are changing just so fast that research cannot keep up with the pace of changes. Just my opinion...
EK!!! |
