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Technology Stocks : Cascade Communications (CSCC)
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To: steve cox who wrote (1919)1/27/1997 8:54:00 AM
From: Don W Stone   of 3743
 
To All:At this point , and as basically a long term investor who buys solely on the fundamentals and who is only influenced occasionally by technical analysis to time a buy, I think a decision here is purely one requiring a review of the fundamentals.
The stock got here because the Street as well as CSCC's management has lowered its projections of EPS growth rate. Not surprising when the company was growing revenue at a rate of 130% to 150%.
The question is : At what rate do you think CSCC can grow EPS over the next several years?
The CEO said on friday that the markets they address will grow at a 50% rate for some time, that CSCC will expand their share in those markets.
If you buy those numbers than just maybe 50% could be considered a consevative number for EPS growth. I would like to see what most mite think to be a BEST possible EPS growth number, 60%? 70%? 80%, 90%?
Add probabilities to those numbers. I for one would say that 90% is possible and the probability is as high as 30%. I think 70% growth is better than 50% probability. These are all guesses purely based on what we have all seen happen with companies that have leading products in this fast gowing telecommunications/internet/intranet markets.
I obviously am assuming that CSCC will gain leads with their new products and that the TELCOS will continue to invest in their infrastructure at an ever increasing rate.
Well that is my OPTIMISTIC VIEW, PERCEPTION, whatever that I'll be basing my actions on today. Now that should make the stock go up.:-} :-) :-) :-) , I hope. ( I wasn't in CSCC till late friday so I am coming from a different perspective, I was one buying some of those 42million shares late friday.)
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