LOL!!!
It looks as though the Ukraine war is resolving without MAD or total war...
I think Russia is going to have to scale up nuclear weapons to target USA...
Uhhh. OK. One of those is perhaps right... given the application of broken clock logic, and all...
Russia lost the Cold War for some obvious reasons...
Or, at least the reasons were patently obvious to everyone except the Russians... That's one of the reasons I've noted that the Gulf War wasn't nearly as much "another war in the Middle East" as it was the last battle of the Cold War. The Russian generals appear to have honestly believed that their "superior" air defense networks were going to win that war for Iraq... and that the superior numbers of Iraqi armor would dominate the war on the ground, ending with Saddam owning Saudi Arabia... with an ability to impose the same global "stranglehold" in oil that the Russians appeared to believe they could impose on Europe, today.
Didn't quite turn out that way, of course.
Not much has changed since, in the reality, the trends, or the usual Russian errors in perception of reality:
The west's technological superiority hasn't diminished in the interim, rather than grown exponentially wider.
The Russian's posturing of "keeping up" with technological achievements clearly not keeping up... but also the ephemeral "appearances" accomplished clearly were purchased at the cost of dramatically hollowing out the less technologically capable force they did have... which WAS (note the past tense) still more than capable of running rough shod over a population of defenseless civilians... but otherwise Russia was not remotely close to being "competitive" in conducting any offensive on a modern battlefield... all which is now rather conclusively proven.
Russia still has meaningful defensive capacity... which is also pretty pointless still, both in that the technological issues extend across the border, but more in that Russia STILL isn't actually being subjected to any attack... merely hope to persist in wrongly inflicting themselves on their neighbors "as by right"...
But, the neighbors no longer have much of a reason to care...
Putin clearly looks more a moron than a savant... no more adept at military strategy than Hitler was... but, of course, also totally lacking anything like the capacity in the backing of the German technological and economic engine enabled under National Socialism in Germany.
Russians clearly will have to make choices soon... about whether they're going to put up with "more of this"... as the chances of the war coming home become increasingly real in parallel with Putin's failure to deal with the reality on the ground. The situation becomes increasingly murky, though, as Putin quickly becomes more of a risk to his people, and his generals, than he is to anyone else.
That won't have me making any predictions about his next move, though... or "what's next"...
This might descend into "more of the same" as it has been... persisting for some time still... as I don't see any indications of anyone "ending it" decisively any time soon.
I'll still agree the whole thing is stupid and pointless... entirely driven by ignorant actors with overly inflated egos... which, of course, doesn't make the outcomes of ignorant acts any less consequential.
Reagan and the Republicans won the Cold War largely over Democrats objection and obstructionism, back when the competition was far more real... and Democrats, afterward, have been on a Russia, Russia, Russia rant ever since the Queen of Cluelessness and Greed Hillary got drunk in Moscow and went stupid embarrassing herself with the "Reset" button BS.... Now it seems only that they were intent on luring Putin into being all the Putin he could be, which is proving out as not much, while induced him into writing checks he couldn't actually have any hope to cash...
How Russia could have so badly miscalculated their own relative capacity... so abysmally failed in comprehending the nature of the opposition in Ukraine... and so dramatically failed in recognizing the capacity and logistical limits inherent in their plans ? Biden may be demented and mostly brain dead... but, that requires that Russian generals are actually totally brain dead zombies... or, otherwise, that Russia under Putin is so totally dysfunctional that "telling him what he wants to hear" is the far safer path, while dealing with and addressing the realty is... not actually possible as long as Putin remains.
Still appears to me that the most obvious outcome... is that Russians inability to project force meaningfully.... will eventually lead to the failure of Russia as it exists now. If that occurs "soon" as the demise and replacement of Putin along with a "reboot" of Russian policy in parallel with new leadership... it might well end soon without "more" impact. If else... it is likely to result in steadily growing dissatisfaction inside Russia, and, with an inability to defend its own borders, civil war, and the eventual dissolution of Russia... following the same path as that blazed by the Soviet Union for making essentially the exact same strategic blunders from forty years ago. My primary concern is still limited to the point of "violence" or not... preferring it be avoided, if possible...
I do think that the reality created already is one that ensures Russia's continuing decline for a significant period of time... and that Putin's choices in the last week or two are only cementing that impact in trend far more permanently... than if other choices were made.
That doesn't mean that's the only change that is likely to result...
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